Is the Market Finally Saturated?

[Sinisterbr]

Hi Markus,

Thanks for stepping in and sharing your thoughts. You're quite an optimist I see.

The sad truth is that most of us in this thread probably agree with most of what you write. There's one thing I don't agree with though:

We are currently facing the same situation as we did with the video-game-crisis in the early 80s. The market was flooded with a huge number of low quality games. It ended up with a big crash and only the big companies which did deliver quality games like Nintendo did survive.

The "problem" as I see it is not that we have an abundance of low quality software, but that we have an abundance of HIGH quality software. What I mean is that we simply don't need a more professional compressor in our arsenal. So as the OP asks, saturation is the problem, not bad software.

That said, the effect will most likely be the same: small companies/constellations disappear because they are too small to survive. Their devs will go to more profitable jobs. At the same time, and as suggested in the thread, bigger companies will buy smaller ones. Finally, big hardware companies (say Logitech) will buy big music software companies for some tech they are missing (like Creative sucking the life out of E-MU). We saw this a few months ago when Izotope bought the reverb dev (forgot its name) - not saying this is a bad thing though as it prolongs the life of quality small-dev software.

Well put.
I still think we're in the middle of a turning point (I never said it would be snapping fast), but I disagree with the videogame crisis comparison made by Markus. I don't think there will be a hard crash in this industry, but more likely smaller players getting out of business. So yes, there is a saturation, in my point of view.

[SparkySpark]

Well put.
I still think we're in the middle of a turning point (I never said it would be snapping fast), but I disagree with the videogame crisis comparison made by Markus. I don't think there will be a hard crash in this industry, but more likely smaller players getting out of business. So yes, there is a saturation, in my point of view.

Well put Sinsisterbr!

Damn, we should form a company together, or why not a band? I have thought of the band name Sister Sinister for a long time.

[BONES]

You know, playing with the Aparillo demo last night, I've realised there is still plenty of scope for new and unique plugins. That thing is utterly unique and capable of some incredible sounds. To me it makes far more sense to be working on stuff like that than on yet another emulation of some old synth that people stopped using 40 years ago. What's needed in the market is a little more innovation on the part of developers and a market that's receptive to such innovation. I've bought Aparillo not because I necessarily think I will get a lot out of it so much as to encourage Sugar-Bytes to keep on thinking outside the box (and because it was half-price).

[SparkySpark]

You know, playing with the Aparillo demo last night, I've realised there is still plenty of scope for new and unique plugins. That thing is utterly unique and capable of some incredible sounds. To me it makes far more sense to be working on stuff like that than on yet another emulation of some old synth that people stopped using 40 years ago. What's needed in the market is a little more innovation on the part of developers and a market that's receptive to such innovation. I've bought Aparillo not because I necessarily think I will get a lot out of it so much as to encourage Sugar-Bytes to keep on thinking outside the box (and because it was half-price).

I agree with you Bones. I too thought of Aparillo actually. There are a few more recent ones, and for each year there will be yet another five or so synths/effects truly unique in terms of sound produced or in terms of workflow/UI.

When I come to think about it, I honestly do not need more than five new intriguing instruments/effects per year (because of the high quality stuff available as mentioned above).

So the answer to the question should, in effect, be no: the market is rather crowded, but there is still room for more software pushing the boundaries.

[Teksonik]

There are saturated segments of the market but as long as there is innovation the market as a whole will always expand.

[Butwug]

I am still waiting for a good modern Phase or Frequency modulation synth

Bitwig’s Phase-4 is great.

[BONES]

ReFX had a great phase distortion synth, called PlastiCZ!, but they discontinued it years and years ago for some reason.

[tony10000]

Well, the fact that NI laid of 20% of its staff and is moving to a unified (subscription?) product is indicative of market pressure. It is also interesting to note that Reason Studios (formerly Propellerhead) seems to be heading in a different direction with the Reason Rack. So, my initial thesis may be right. We may see a "thinning of the herd".

[telecode]

Well, the fact that NI laid of 20% of its staff and is moving to a unified (subscription?) product is indicative of market pressure. It is also interesting to note that Reason Studios (formerly Propellerhead) seems to be heading in a different direction with the Reason Rack. So, my initial thesis may be right. We may see a "thinning of the herd".

no one has mentioned how is the german economy doing? the NI happenings could be linked. Is consumer spending down heavily?

[Aliens]

What has German consumer spending got to do with NI sacking staff while selling software in a global marketplace?

[telecode]

Well. There usually is a connection between local economy and the business that operates in the country. they must have investments in other stuff than just music.

[Forgotten]

If one G7 country is sick then you can pretty much guarantee an impact on world markets, so regardless of the global nature of NI’s market, German consumer confidence is an indicator of macroeconomic trends.

Not sure that this is market related anyway - it seems more closely related to NI’s realization that they are running at less than optimal efficiency and are making poor management decisions.

[highkoo]

They probably just fired the people that have left MX in such a state.

[pdxindy]

I am still waiting for a good modern Phase or Frequency modulation synth

Bitwig’s Phase-4 is great.

And then there is Bazille... it is an amazing synth for phase and frequency modulation...

[chk071]

They probably just fired the people that have left MX in such a state.

I'm glad they don't have such a smart person like yourself in charge for that. If they fired those people, they would have a real problem with digging into the code to provide further updates. Genius.

Apart from that, NI is responsible for the state the plugins are when they release them.