The guitar apocalypse is real

[tapper mike]

So I was watching this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkV42cQ1mwg

Most of the points he makes are salient.
One I disagree with and that would be the vintage market. There are fewer and fewer buyers who can appreciate

These things only move when the original owners grandson dies and it shows up at an estate auction. Prices are high and they never move.
https://reverb.com/item/56782125-d-ange ... shell-case

Two years later and didn't move.
https://reverb.com/item/50538808-1948-g ... 5-premiere
As an investment they are not a good idea.

With regards to the rest of the market I'm not surprised. Less than one in 100 people who take up the guitar are playing a year later and there is a significant fall off in the second year as well.

It may be that the coming months we'll see deep discounts in the middle and higher tier guitars.

Sam Ash is closing half of it's stores. They claim that the rent is too damn high. And I can believe most of that. Venture capitalists are buying anything and every property they can and inflating the price. That's why there is a big push to get workers back in the office. They can't rent empty office space. The other side is that brick and mortar retailers have been dying a slow death. The ones that get ahead of the curve with lots of promo work on social media coupled with online sales are the ones that are surviving.

I've bought two things ever that were sold on Sam Ash. Both are guitars under the "Guitar Research" (not affiliated with Schecter) They are damn good jazz boxes but I had to sell during my clearing house years back.

[Uncle E]

With things like Tonex and Katana:Go, it's never been easier or cheaper to get truly satisfying sounds anywhere. I'd like to think this helps keep beginners from giving up.

btw, I'm now in my fourth year of releasing my own guitars and can tell you there's still a market out there.

[lfm]

"Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. "
- Mark Twain

John Mayer did a lot to bring the guitar to the forefront again.

There are always waves up and down what is fashionable.
- it's been fashionable to bring pads, tablets and smart phones into school and education
- this is now changed by new government in sweden, to bring back pen and paper
- smartphones are prohibited in class room too
- many things steal young peoples attention

When the low hanging fruit has been consumed, you look for something real and lasting.
- and don't mind climb up the tree a bit

[tapper mike]

btw, I'm now in my fourth year of releasing my own guitars and can tell you there's still a market out there.

Jealous.

[Funkybot's Evil Twin]

When it comes to the used market, I think the guy is right and I was recently having a conversation with a friend and was saying the same thing. For a while, used guitars could be seen selling over sticker price of new models, just because they were available. The pandemic got people playing again, they got stimulus money, and it destroyed supply chains (which also inflated the prices of new guitars/amps/effects). I think things are coming back to normal in the used market.

Anecdotal evidence: new '61 Standard SG's are selling for $1,999. I recently picked a used one [in great shape] up for $1,250, which feels about right. Some sellers were still asking $1,600 for one, I put in offer of $1,250 on one where the seller was asking $1,400 and that was turned down. A day later, I found one on Reverb and the seller accepted $1,250 (which was about the going rate on them based on sales). Some folks are parking their guitars at inflated prices in the hopes they'll sell and don't want to budge, but other people understand it's no longer the seller's market it was a few years ago. I think things will continue to improve for buyers in the next few months/years.

The new market is a little different. As long as small companies didn't grow too fast, expecting the Covid bump in sales to continue indefinitely, I think the new market will be fine. But I suspect prices will start to come down a bit there too due to improved supply chain conditions. But my guess is there are still more people playing guitar in 2024 then there were this time in 2019.

[vurt]

i remember the 90s, when "dj turntables outsell guitars! the end of rock and roll is imminent!!!"

all i see is young kids with coloured hair, wearing black and carrying guitars.
plenty of them out and about, while the djs are being replaced by playlists...

[Bombadil]

Can I have some of what you're smoking?

[vurt]

yup.

[zerocrossing]

Such a missed opportunity. It’s clearly not a guitar apocalypse. It’s Guitarmageddon.

[BertKoor]

So loads of pretty decent second-hand guitars will be available at reasonable prices. What's so bad about that?

[Bombadil]

Not a good time to be a seller. I can attest to that.
I must be 'post-apocalyptic' 'cause I'm out of the new guitar game. Or 2nd hand guitar game.
It's been a large hassle, and I have a great collection that I've lost money to arrive at.

[tapper mike]

I haven't stopped thinking about my next guitar. That doesn't mean I can afford it. It's not that I don't want another it's just not in the cards. I can't afford to restring the ones I have now and many need work that I'm not competent to do. So I just play them all as they are.
I'm not above taking handouts for Stratocasters so long as it's American made fender. I already have a Yamaha Variax but it sounds like crap to my ears.

I think more about the players and how much of a next generation will actually still play. Taylor Swift sold more guitars than Mayer or Mayer and Hendrix combined. And as much as she is a media darling that's actually starting to fade. What we have here are isolated performers where as in the past there were more wannabe guitar players idolizing more guitarists who had the free time and the commitment to learning and playing.

[Uncle E]

Do you know the string slap trick for making them sound like new again? The video is for bass but it also works on guitar wound strings:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8OYeN9mAL4

[jamcat]

Taylor Swift sold more guitars than Mayer or Mayer and Hendrix combined.

Is that why everyone wants a Taylor?

[CoolGuitarGear]

With things like Tonex and Katana:Go, it's never been easier or cheaper to get truly satisfying sounds anywhere. I'd like to think this helps keep beginners from giving up.

btw, I'm now in my fourth year of releasing my own guitars and can tell you there's still a market out there.

Give it less than a year. People are not realizing what is happening in the world, on a grand scale and not being reporting on mainstream media. Things are going to be very different very soon, and it all started in 2020. Enjoy the great reset.