If AI replaces musicians, does the entire plugin industry die with them?

[enCiphered]

If AI really does replace a large part of music creation, who is actually going to buy plugins anymore?

The whole plugin ecosystem exists because humans want tools to shape sound, experiment, design, mix and develop their own workflow. If music becomes mostly prompt-based or fully automated, the end user is no longer a producer or sound designer but just a consumer of output.

At that point, what happens to audio plugin developers, DAW companies, sample library creators?

It feels like people talk about “AI replacing musicians” without thinking through the second-order effects. If there are no creators, there’s no real market for creative tools either.

So I’m genuinely curious:
Are any developers already noticing changes in sales, user behavior, or demand because of AI tools? Or is this still mostly theoretical right now? Noise?!

[stefancrs]

No, because we still want to craft. Just like we still do woodworking or what have you.

[andi75]

That's theoretical bullshit. If you have e.g. an exact idea of how a filter sweep should sound, you will not be able to tell this an AI with a prompt, you will open your DAW, open a plugin you know and just do it exactly the way you imagine it. The same goes for everything else that brings movement and humanity into your music. AI might be (or is already) able to make great music, but it will not make *exactly* the music *you* want, so it will never stop people from making music, especially if you want maximum control over the result - and usually, you want that. So, no, plugins will stay with us.
Edit: Rereading this, I noticed it sounds too negative towards AI. I think AI can help compensate weaknesses. If I am not able to make a good mix, it's fine if AI is helping out. If I don't have a good idea for a melody or a sound, AI can help to make the first step. It will be part of our workflow and support the creative process, but I don't see it replace what we have and do, including the plugins we use.

[dionenoid]

Right now the contrary is happening : Lately there's been more plugins being released as a result of ppl coding plugins using AI.

[IvyBirds]

People who use AI exclusively to make music are not plugin buyers anyway

There has always been crap music, and have always been excuses for how technology will kill music. Synths were going to kill music, then sampling, then affordable multitrack recording, then computer based sequencing, then DAT, then DAWs, then plugins.

If anything AI will make plugins better because they can be used to speed up the coding process, people who pure AI tolls to create music might also get inspired to take a.mkre hands on approach to music creation as well

Years ago my son got the original guitar hero video game. He enjoyed playing fake guitar so much he took up the actual instrument which he got quite good at and plays today. AI will do the same

[wagtunes]

AI will not take over the music industry. Cheese and K Rice. What is it with you people and you're doom and gloom?

[Neon Breath]

AI success or flop (I really believe for most part it's a mega bloated & swollen bubble created by the tech bros) there will always be musicians no matter what. Music is an important form of art in every culture, and humans need art, AI or not. It's not a frivolous whim, but an essential human need. It's a fundamental tool for communication & emotional expression. Regardless of technological advancements and tools available, I truly believe that humans will always have an urgent need to create and that AI cannot sublimate this deeply rooted need. In fact, it could even strengthen it further and we see at some point art forms labeled as ''proudly created and handcrafted by humans, no AI involved''.

[Daru925]

In a few years, when i can generate a blockbuster or a videogame for the night with a free Ai, that gives goodenough fastfood results, who needs to pay for the marginally better but expensive hollywood official AI? Why even have friends, i can put ai in a doll and have my curated social circle.

You can still do music for fun and ask the boston dynamics robot master if you played well while you wait to be disposed of as soil fertilizer

[IrionDaRonin]

No, robots and AIs will get G.A.S too, no worries.

[ghettosynth]

These questions are always phrased in an extreme binary. Neither end is true, but, if you think that it won't impact music gear sales, you're naive. Now, the operational question is does it drive marginally more, or fewer, people to an interest in creating music with tools other than AI. Note, that even if people start with AI, they may continue manually as they develop more skill. Suno let's you download stems to work with. So, I suspect that the next path will be from AI tune to personalized version. The AI firms already do some of this now, trying to put the DAW in the cloud. This will have limits for the foreseeable future because they are not using virtual instruments for new parts, it's all audio tokens.

[BBFG#]

At the very least, it will create a whole new market. At the worst, it will flood the industry with crap that's harder to climb out of. It may make things better in spite of it rather than because of it.

[VariKusBrainZ]

Humans love experiencing other humans doing stuff that blows there minds, for most of you its watching someone strum a few chords or bust out a basic blues jam. Ive experienced this first hand as a mediocre guitar player at parties where people immediately start to circle and pull up chairs to listen and ogle

[DCrown]

let us create a worst case scenario.
Today 100.000+ uploads every day on Spotify, tomorrow 10 Mio uploads every day (= 10 Mio Copyright Infringements every day, there won't be copyright any more, wouldn't make any sense).
A mass product will turn into a mass product, more or less nothing will change.
Don't upload any of your music on the internet, AI will absorb and use it., don't even send audio files via email (big brother=ai is watching you!). Use cassette tapes and share it with people you trust only. AI will be able to store every (possible) song b eforehand, also a song that has not even been created or composed yet by a human, so every released song made 100% by a human will be theoretecally a Copyright Infringement. Every song already exists in the AI world of endless combinations, song arrangements, instrument solos and possibilities). AI vs human beings. AI will rule, unfortunately. We will become sl@ves.
Next generations won't need plugins and most hardware any more.
Some say AI is the next level of evolution and will replace human species.

I am going to buy me some casette tapes.

Spotify supports AI by creating fake ai artists itself, making faked high rankings of ai music.
Well, you know exactly how to react or what to do, not just not using any plugin with ai, but that won't ever happen. Pandora's box has been opened.

@VariKuzBrainZ
Are you imagining a beautiful scenario beyond reality ? (well, I can only refer to my own xperiences!) or maybe your "friends_ just want to be nice, but think "when will he/she stop playing?!" (or maybe they are stoned or drunken?), especially if a performance gets too long.
Virtuosity and musical talent, no one cares about it today but some ole peope . "Less than mediocre" rules anyway, I mean everybody without any musical skills can produce 30 songs every day by using ai. Young people are the future though, listening to a performance or song more than 2 minutes is torture to most of them, that's not tikytoky. They only like taking pics or video of some live performer to upload it immediately on ig or... I stopped performing live, cuz all these smartphones in front of you, it is like guns pointing at me.
Why do you perform for an audience as a mediocre player? Why don't you show any respect to art and music.?
I mean, I don't offer anyone wooden chairs that I made very amateurish, a carpenter makes chairs, you have to learn how to make proper good quality chairs and usually won't offer or sell a chair or other wooden product until you will have become a master. Mediocrity is an illness nowadays.
I mean even in sports there are different leagues, professional, amateur and hobby.
But because of disrespect to music everyone can join the same league, everyone can upload on Spotify & Co. professional musicians, amateurs, hobby musicians and ai producers and artists, that's pure nonsense.
Tell me , who could join the NBA if he had no basketball skills at all, who?!

I am surprised some people seem.to think AI won't take over, it already has and it's just the beginning.

BTW the doomsday clock was set at 85 seconds to midnight! So no need to worry about anything haha

[Seafire Mk2]

If AI really does replace a large part of music creation, who is actually going to buy plugins anymore?

It won't, nothing will change.

[BBFG#]

More of chance it will replace DJs before musicians.