Windows 8 sales figures

[Lode_Runner]

My point isn't that the desktop is going away...that is clearly not the case. My point is that the PC could easily become more of an expensive boutique item,

It's probably true, I just hope that it's not. The thought of having to pay $7000 in 10 years time for something I can currently get for $2000. That's a nightmare for music producers, graphic designers, gamers...

[robogone]

My point isn't that the desktop is going away...that is clearly not the case. My point is that the PC could easily become more of an expensive boutique item,

It's probably true, I just hope that it's not. The thought of having to pay $7000 in 10 years time for something I can currently get for $2000. That's a nightmare for music producers, graphic designers, gamers...

I think there's an inevitability of both desktops and laptops getting more expensive as sales fall. Profits are wafer thin right now in a very competitive market, and if you look back at recent years you'll see a few companies have gone bankrupt where their profits come mostly from PC sales or PC peripherals.

Laptops are holding steady for now and have obviously dropped in price in recent years, but it's hard for a manufacturer to justify staying in a market with thin profit margins if they can't sell volume.

Might not be immediate, but it's likely that desktop prices will rise and sales numbers fall as that's a common pattern in any industry where sales fall yet there's still demand.

[Alfalfa]

Windows Blue -- the 8.1 update due out later this year ought to improve things. Manufacturers are also coming out with some more interesting devices. The 18" tablet appeals to me more than the 10" tablets. I like the touchscreen laptops with a 13" screen. At the Microsoft Store, I toyed around on the 18" tablet set up like an all-in-one on the table. Office 2013 was actually touchable.

But, I'll only change when it's worth it to me, regardless of what the trends are showing. It's not a fashion show. It's a tool.

[Alfalfa]

Microsoft Prepares U-Turn on Windows 8: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100713593

[robogone]

Microsoft Prepares U-Turn on Windows 8: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100713593

They still won't give details of what is coming in that release though. The thing that would make the most sense would be to implement the Windows 7 style UI as that's the only thing that might help them make more sales.

[xNiMiNx]

I thought XP was dead? Ha! Been thinking of picking up another XP x64 pro off ebay lately.

Im all for technology and progression, but imo it seems theres a half brain dead monkey with an ipod at the wheel lately.

XP x64 til the wheels fall off.

[DevonB]

Points I never saw come up in this discussion, or at least very little -

What's going to help move the tablet and PC terminal on the desktop movement? The increase of network bandwidth within the enterprise and across the globe. Technologies like Citrix with app streaming (XenApp) and the like are going to lessen the need of powerful desktops as the workload shifts from the source (the desktop) to the destination in the cloud (large grid based server farms). You can even stream graphic intensive games to an underpowered desktop and it'll work. You just need the network bandwidth to get it there. Ever used Splashtop on a tablet? Streams whatever your computer is doing just perfectly to the tablet without having to have a powerful tablet.

It's funny how this is all just coming back full circle. Think mainframes with VT100 terminals from the 80's. This will help solve the issue with control over sensitive data if you stream the data to the device only. It'll never actually be on the device itself, which helps solve the problem with security.

I also am starting to see the technologies merge of tablet portability with pc integration. Look at the Asus AIO for example. https://www.asus.com/AllinOne_PCs/

What's also going to be very important is the ease of information access and syncronization across all devices. Having a single device store all your data is going to become a thing of the past, thankfully.

I also can't believe that people keep hammering on typing on a tablet bit. Bluetooth keyboards and proprietary keyboards (like the Asus Transformer tablets) are absolutely available for tablets and have been for years now. I agree typing on my iPad is painful. The keyboards make it much better.

Devon

[Lode_Runner]

I also can't believe that people keep hammering on typing on a tablet bit. Bluetooth keyboards and proprietary keyboards (like the Asus Transformer tablets) are absolutely available for tablets and have been for years now. I agree typing on my iPad is painful. The keyboards make it much better.

I'm not sure if others raised it in the thread, but I raised that point in response to the argument that tablets are going to replace desktops in the workplace.

Of course keyboards and mice can be used to control a tablet. For personal users who are happy to use a touch screen to navigate mp3s, internet browsing, GPS, email, games, cameras, kindle books etc, and who only occasionally need to do lengthy typing, then the tablet makes for a much more portable and lightweight alternative to the notebook. Having a keyboard at home that can be used when you want to type something longer makes perfect sense in this context.

My general point was that touch screen technology isn't suited to 8 hour days at a work station in an office. You would need an external keyboard and mouse for the majority of the work you do, for faster typing as well as ergonomic reasons. This would then make the touch screen all but redundant. That's why I don't believe "tablets" are going to replace desktops in the office, having hundreds or thousands of touch screens that aren't contributing to productivity would be a massive waste of money. What I do believe will replace desktops in an office environment is a simpler stripped down computer without the hard drives, Quad core processor etc etc. Something that merely connects a monitor, keyboard and mouse to a server where all the processing is done (as in your first point). That could be some sort of monitor/computer hybrid, but it wouldn't be a tablet.

For workers who need to be mobile on the other hand (eg going to visit clients etc) a tablet may offer some advantages over a notebook (and some disadvantages), but that's an entirely different argument.

[DevonB]

My general point was that touch screen technology isn't suited to 8 hour days at a work station in an office. You would need an external keyboard and mouse for the majority of the work you do, for faster typing as well as ergonomic reasons. This would then make the touch screen all but redundant. That's why I don't believe "tablets" are going to replace desktops in the office, having hundreds or thousands of touch screens that aren't contributing to productivity would be a massive waste of money. What I do believe will replace desktops in an office environment is a simpler stripped down computer without the hard drives, Quad core processor etc etc. Something that merely connects a monitor, keyboard and mouse to a server where all the processing is done (as in your first point). That could be some sort of monitor/computer hybrid, but it wouldn't be a tablet.

What you speak of exists, and has for years. As VDI (Virtual Desktop Infrastructre for those of you not in IT ) continues to take off in the enterprise, the minimal terminal workstation will likely continue to become more common again. However, at the cost of these devices ($400-$600, depending on capability, brand, etc.), the tablet is on equal footing cost-wise, except it has the distinct advantage of portable computing power, has a built in monitor and input, unlike the terminal devices, which need an additional mouse/monitor/keyboard to be useful to an end user. For those reasons, I do not agree with your assessment of the tablet being a waste of money, but a differentiator and has additional benefits.

We also focus heavily on the old paradigm of keyboard/mouse as the only viable method of input. I agree it's one of the best, but I still think there are enough creative people out there to continue to develop better input methodologies that could benefit from having both at hand. Watch a demonstration of Cakewalk Sonar X2 with a touchpad if you can.

For workers who need to be mobile on the other hand (eg going to visit clients etc) a tablet may offer some advantages over a notebook (and some disadvantages), but that's an entirely different argument.

I watch a lot of vendors pass through here at work with a mix of portable devices. It seems to be a mix of iPad's and Macbook Air's predominately. I've been given presentation off of iPad's with a projector before a few times as well. I'm merely bringing this up to add to your comment, but not add to the other discussion though.

Devon

[Lode_Runner]

My general point was that touch screen technology isn't suited to 8 hour days at a work station in an office. You would need an external keyboard and mouse for the majority of the work you do, for faster typing as well as ergonomic reasons. This would then make the touch screen all but redundant. That's why I don't believe "tablets" are going to replace desktops in the office, having hundreds or thousands of touch screens that aren't contributing to productivity would be a massive waste of money. What I do believe will replace desktops in an office environment is a simpler stripped down computer without the hard drives, Quad core processor etc etc. Something that merely connects a monitor, keyboard and mouse to a server where all the processing is done (as in your first point). That could be some sort of monitor/computer hybrid, but it wouldn't be a tablet.

What you speak of exists, and has for years. As VDI (Virtual Desktop Infrastructre for those of you not in IT ) continues to take off in the enterprise, the minimal terminal workstation will likely continue to become more common again. However, at the cost of these devices ($400-$600, depending on capability, brand, etc.), the tablet is on equal footing cost-wise, except it has the distinct advantage of portable computing power, has a built in monitor and input, unlike the terminal devices, which need an additional mouse/monitor/keyboard to be useful to an end user. For those reasons, I do not agree with your assessment of the tablet being a waste of money, but a differentiator and has additional benefits.

We also focus heavily on the old paradigm of keyboard/mouse as the only viable method of input. I agree it's one of the best, but I still think there are enough creative people out there to continue to develop better input methodologies that could benefit from having both at hand. Watch a demonstration of Cakewalk Sonar X2 with a touchpad if you can.


Devon

I guess if there's a similar cost to a tablet as there is to a VDI set up, then my point about cost is moot.

I think the portable advantage isn't required for a lot of workplaces, and while it has a built in input (I'm assuming this means touchscreen), that's not a practical alternative in workplaces where people need to do a lot of typing, so in those cases a keyboard and mouse would still be required, for typing speed and ergonomic reasons. As such I don't see significant advantages of a tablet over a monitor and basic terminal for a large number of workplaces. Not that a tablet couldn't be used with a keyboard and mouse, but that I still don't see it as the number one likely candidate to replace the desktop in the office.

The paradigm of keyboard/mouse itself is old but isn't really outdated yet. There are alternative devices around and more being developed, but to my knowledge they're not currently threatening to take away the keyboard and mouse from most workplaces. Given that people can take a long time to adjust to different ways of doing things (eg it takes a long time to learn to touch type, I imagine alternatives would take time to become adept on as well), this may be one area that is very resistant to change. But that's to my admittedly limited knowledge.

[Blues_127]

As OEM's create new devices etc, sales will pick up. Assuming the marketing geniuses at MS go away and they hire someone from Apple! As one in the industry, I have to agree that the PC market as we know it is going away. The Dell's & HP's of the world have already majorly restructured the way they do business and more changes are coming. Half of the problem with WIN 8 is the learning curve. Once you get used to it and stop complaining, you realize most of it's pretty cool. Particularly when you find yourself swiping at a WIN 7 screen until you realize it's not touch

The biggest real problem I have seen/heard are compatibility issues. With the tools we use, the resolution requires developers to strip away layers of code that impede performance anyway. I think we are going to come out with a tool we all want to use as more and more of these issues are resolved. I do not work at MS, but I feed off of the breadcrumbs they drop, so, please, my family and I beseech you, give Win 8 a try

[DevonB]

I think the portable advantage isn't required for a lot of workplaces, and while it has a built in input (I'm assuming this means touchscreen), that's not a practical alternative in workplaces where people need to do a lot of typing, so in those cases a keyboard and mouse would still be required, for typing speed and ergonomic reasons.

Nice run-on sentence. Easy to do in this discussion. Back to task - Ok, yes, I'm not disagreeing that a keyboard and mouse are not needed. You would need one for either the terminal machine or the tablet, so costs would be close to the same (you'd need wireless bluetooth for the tablet, but not necessarily for the terminal machine.) But the cost wash in quantities could make it more moot between the two.

As such I don't see significant advantages of a tablet over a monitor and basic terminal for a large number of workplaces. Not that a tablet couldn't be used with a keyboard and mouse, but that I still don't see it as the number one likely candidate to replace the desktop in the office.

As wireless has become practically ubiquitous, this allows you to take your work with you to meetings, you can collaborate easier with your co-workers that sit on another floor or row than you, etc. You cannot do that with a desktop practically. So if I'm looking at two different devices, one that allows me to be portable and productive for basically the same cost factor, to me, it's more of a no-brainer. And please, I am NOT arguing that the tablet itself will replace the keyboard and mouse. I'm saying BOTH the terminal machine and the tablet need a keyboard and mouse. However, the tablet has more advantages in that it can be portable, and have its own built in display and input methodology built in. Not completely practical for long stints, but it does something the terminal device cannot for the same COST, so I'm not seeing the terminal machine winning in the long run because of this aspect.

However, the number of years your amortize your costs either by leasing the equipment or outright purchase can and will change some of the numbers as well (hey, I'm willing to argue both sides of the fence here. ) Hmmmm... That will be interesting to see what the finance companies who lease the equipment value each device at over "x" amount of years. I might be able to find that out actually...

The paradigm of keyboard/mouse itself is old but isn't really outdated yet. There are alternative devices around and more being developed, but to my knowledge they're not currently threatening to take away the keyboard and mouse from most workplaces.

Agreed, not arguing this at all.

Given that people can take a long time to adjust to different ways of doing things (eg it takes a long time to learn to touch type, I imagine alternatives would take time to become adept on as well), this may be one area that is very resistant to change. But that's to my admittedly limited knowledge.

Think smart phones, blackberry's etc as new methods of input and how widely adopted it's been. Not practical for 8 hours of typing, yes, but look at how well they've been adopted. Swype, auto complete, etc. Not perfect, but still a means of communication, as well as voice recognition, which as it continues to improve. This could very well change the input devices we use today, along with the new S4 and its eye tracking capability.

Devon

[j79]

Points I never saw come up in this discussion, or at least very little -

What's going to help move the tablet and PC terminal on the desktop movement? The increase of network bandwidth within the enterprise and across the globe. Technologies like Citrix with app streaming (XenApp) and the like are going to lessen the need of powerful desktops as the workload shifts from the source (the desktop) to the destination in the cloud (large grid based server farms). You can even stream graphic intensive games to an underpowered desktop and it'll work. You just need the network bandwidth to get it there. Ever used Splashtop on a tablet? Streams whatever your computer is doing just perfectly to the tablet without having to have a powerful tablet.

It's funny how this is all just coming back full circle. Think mainframes with VT100 terminals from the 80's. This will help solve the issue with control over sensitive data if you stream the data to the device only. It'll never actually be on the device itself, which helps solve the problem with security.

I agree...one point though:

My previous job was at a place where we had all sorts of people doing all sorts of different things.

The way it was run was "real" desktops combined with a Citrix XenApp solution.

That way, the software that everyone needs is run through Citrix, and the vast amount of specialised software that only a few people need is run locally.

The IT-department could maintain the stuff on the servers that everybody needed, but did not have to mess with the hundreds of programs that only a few people had. In that sort of environment, the time needed to service, update, install etc. all the software if it was placed on the servers instead of on a small handful of users local machines, is simply not worth it. It would mean "downtime" if everyone had to contact IT and have them do a simple upgrade, install a patch or whatever. It takes a few minutes to do on a local machine, but could mean restarting of servers that would affect everone if it was run through Citrix. Or it would mean that it would take a long time to do these things if it was to be done in the planned maintenance schedule. Some of these programs are updated about once a month, some even on a weekly basis.

I know for a fact that their next upgrade will be desktops too...but i am sure they will eventually move to laptops with dockingstations.

Anyway, i am just making the point that running everything on central servers is not a viable solution everywhere. Not with the current technology at least.

[DevonB]

I agree...one point though:

My previous job was at a place where we had all sorts of people doing all sorts of different things.

The way it was run was "real" desktops combined with a Citrix XenApp solution.

That way, the software that everyone needs is run through Citrix, and the vast amount of specialised software that only a few people need is run locally.

The IT-department could maintain the stuff on the servers that everybody needed, but did not have to mess with the hundreds of programs that only a few people had. In that sort of environment, the time needed to service, update, install etc. all the software if it was placed on the servers instead of on a small handful of users local machines, is simply not worth it. It would mean "downtime" if everyone had to contact IT and have them do a simple upgrade, install a patch or whatever. It takes a few minutes to do on a local machine, but could mean restarting of servers that would affect everone if it was run through Citrix. Or it would mean that it would take a long time to do these things if it was to be done in the planned maintenance schedule. Some of these programs are updated about once a month, some even on a weekly basis.

I know for a fact that their next upgrade will be desktops too...but i am sure they will eventually move to laptops with dockingstations.

Anyway, i am just making the point that running everything on central servers is not a viable solution everywhere. Not with the current technology at least.

Well aware there is no 'one size fits all'. Our solution for this has still been virtual machines, but fully provisioned/persistent machines in a VM for anyone who needs a specialized desktops (developers, etc.) This would still meet your needs as you illustrated, but move it off the desktop still.

Devon

[Lode_Runner]

I think the portable advantage isn't required for a lot of workplaces, and while it has a built in input (I'm assuming this means touchscreen), that's not a practical alternative in workplaces where people need to do a lot of typing, so in those cases a keyboard and mouse would still be required, for typing speed and ergonomic reasons.

Nice run-on sentence. Easy to do in this discussion. Back to task - Ok, yes, I'm not disagreeing that a keyboard and mouse are not needed. You would need one for either the terminal machine or the tablet, so costs would be close to the same (you'd need wireless bluetooth for the tablet, but not necessarily for the terminal machine.) But the cost wash in quantities could make it more moot between the two.

As such I don't see significant advantages of a tablet over a monitor and basic terminal for a large number of workplaces. Not that a tablet couldn't be used with a keyboard and mouse, but that I still don't see it as the number one likely candidate to replace the desktop in the office.

As wireless has become practically ubiquitous, this allows you to take your work with you to meetings, you can collaborate easier with your co-workers that sit on another floor or row than you, etc. You cannot do that with a desktop practically. So if I'm looking at two different devices, one that allows me to be portable and productive for basically the same cost factor, to me, it's more of a no-brainer. And please, I am NOT arguing that the tablet itself will replace the keyboard and mouse. I'm saying BOTH the terminal machine and the tablet need a keyboard and mouse. However, the tablet has more advantages in that it can be portable, and have its own built in display and input methodology built in. Not completely practical for long stints, but it does something the terminal device cannot for the same COST, so I'm not seeing the terminal machine winning in the long run because of this aspect.

However, the number of years your amortize your costs either by leasing the equipment or outright purchase can and will change some of the numbers as well (hey, I'm willing to argue both sides of the fence here. ) Hmmmm... That will be interesting to see what the finance companies who lease the equipment value each device at over "x" amount of years. I might be able to find that out actually...

The paradigm of keyboard/mouse itself is old but isn't really outdated yet. There are alternative devices around and more being developed, but to my knowledge they're not currently threatening to take away the keyboard and mouse from most workplaces.

Agreed, not arguing this at all.

Given that people can take a long time to adjust to different ways of doing things (eg it takes a long time to learn to touch type, I imagine alternatives would take time to become adept on as well), this may be one area that is very resistant to change. But that's to my admittedly limited knowledge.

Think smart phones, blackberry's etc as new methods of input and how widely adopted it's been. Not practical for 8 hours of typing, yes, but look at how well they've been adopted. Swype, auto complete, etc. Not perfect, but still a means of communication, as well as voice recognition, which as it continues to improve. This could very well change the input devices we use today, along with the new S4 and its eye tracking capability.

Devon

Yes, I probably should have thrown an extra full stop in there somewhere.

I don't think we're actually disagreeing on much at all. Just me misreading you more than anything, and being stuck in my ways a bit.

Interesting point regarding portability. You're right, I can see the Ipad being lifted from the desk and brought to meetings etc. instead of a paper diary/blackberry etc.

Also, I can see your point regarding alternative input devices. Just because it takes a long time to learn to touch type on a traditional keyboard, doesn't mean other input devices will require the same level of practice to learn to use proficiently.