Hit Song Detector !

[Meffy]

Outsomnia: What I find hard to believe is that someone has come up with a computer model that reliably models anything as complex -- and as notoriously fickle -- as the public's taste in listening material.

Hard? Really, I should've said impossible to believe. So I don't believe it. :-)

[WoJ]

Heard about this some time ago from my music tech teacher, and apparantly it has been known to work. It isnt so hard to believe, u get certain freq. brain waves when u sleep which is why people use certain freq. to meditate (shaman drumming too etc) so they may well be a certain generic "colour/style" of sound that the general population will like.

WoJ

[Meffy]

That's generalities. This guy appears to be talking specifics -- picking exact hits. That's what I don't believe.

It's like astrology. Anyone can write "You were born under the sign of Fleeblump. Fleeblumpers are free-spirited, independent, enjoy companionship and challenges, and make good spouses" and know that 90% of people will think "Yeah! That's me exactly!" whether they were born under the sign of Fleeblump or Snerzlegloot or Groddifig.

Try to get a specific, though! "People born under Fleeblump have large moles on their left ring finger, and within two days will meet a Korean man who will give them an envelope containing seventeen dollars and a 'Hello Kitty' bookmark." I don't think so...

Same with this deal. It's easy enough to predict that a certain style will be popular. Picking exactly which songs in that style will become hits and which will flop, and not missing any hits... I don't believe there is software that can reliably do this.

Until proof is provided -- not isolated anecdotes, but a strong record over a substantial time, paying close attention both to successes and failures of the method -- I'll keep on not believing it.

[TechnoWeeniePas]

...anything as complex -- and as notoriously fickle -- as the public's taste in listening material...

Complex? Fickle? Have you seen the crap on the Billboard listings lately? I dont think the general public is into very complex music Now days high selling and high airplay music seems to be based more on standards, and formulas, and advertising and less on inventiveness and musical merit. Now Im not saying that all music that is put out in the last bunch of years is crap either...just that alot of the current high selling pop that is being sold or played on the radio is a poor example of "great music" as far as music goes.

[Meffy]

I never said the music was complex, as the bit you quoted clearly shows. It's the psychology behind public taste that's complex.

You don't have to be smart or sophisticated to have complex thought process, and mass trends are made of millions of individual thinkers. Some aren't terribly deep thinkers, but that is no indication that there's not a lot of activity going on inside the skull... just not terribly well organized.

Someone's already mentioned a factor I suspect is at least as powerful as any other: how much the record companies fork over in payola. That would appear to trump any prediction this fellow's program might make.

Nope, I don't believe this is any more than a show to get investors to sink some cash in the guy's venture.

[robenestobenz]

Meffy: I don't think it can predict which songs will _definitely_ be hits, seeing as there is other factors involved here; marketing, exposure etc, as you said. I do find it easy to believe that there is some substance in the methods though, and like Woj and the guy I can't see on the previous page I have also heard of it working quite well. At least in terms of giving past hits, and the perennially popular super-hits high ratings, and identifying similarities between them.

Personally I find catchiness instinctive, absolutely instinctive. It's this immediate quality which results in my lack of surprise... I find it pretty easy to believe there is certain harmonies, progressions and structures which just sound catchy to the modern listener of western pop. The way music has changed over time (and the general apathy of the average pop listener towards music more than several generations or so old) would also suggest to me that there is patterns to a spread of music that can be tapped into.


//edit: That 100% success rate mentioned on the site has got to be bollocks though.

[Link-Devine-Machine]

They ACTUALLY SELL CONFIDENCE for the music company A&R, nothing more , nothing less !

This happens in every kind of industry , many millions of dollars are spent just for that everywhere

Link