nope - that'S what I meant - the previous tries have no effect on the next result - as I said the 'conditions' in this case are the number of alternatives - if they shrink your chances raise - if they increase your chances shrink...fabi the underachiever wrote: well, but that is what i mean - it stays the same for each individual try - but does it stay the same when you consider 'has not been rolled the ten previous times' an additional condition? what qualifies as an additional condition?
YOU WILL NOT BELEIVE THIS
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- KVRAF
- 25049 posts since 12 Jul, 2003 from West Caprazumia
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- KVRer
- 28 posts since 21 Oct, 2005
Well just look at the truth table then.jens wrote:as I cannot look at its code (and even if I could I wouldn't help as I'm not a coder) it doesn't prove a thing!Bob Gravy wrote:If you don't believe me try the link to the simulator...
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- KVRAF
- 25049 posts since 12 Jul, 2003 from West Caprazumia
but I already gave you a reason why it is flawed...Bob Gravy wrote:Well just look at the truth table then.jens wrote:as I cannot look at its code (and even if I could I wouldn't help as I'm not a coder) it doesn't prove a thing!Bob Gravy wrote:If you don't believe me try the link to the simulator...
- did you actually read my thorough explanation?
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- KVRer
- 28 posts since 21 Oct, 2005
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- KVRAF
- 2035 posts since 6 Sep, 2005
Did you guys think about that:
------------------------------
1) You first make a choice, and your chances were 1/3
2) The host open the door, we have two elements left
3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.
Think of it like this: When the 3rd door is opened, then there is two doors left. And then the host asks you to decide. It is like starting all over again with only 2 doors. forget about the three doors.
Your chances are 1/2 on the second choice. I would your chances are pretty much equal. because your in fact making another choice. The same thing with the 100 doors thingy. At the end, your left with a decision to make between 2 choices.
------------------------------
1) You first make a choice, and your chances were 1/3
2) The host open the door, we have two elements left
3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.
Think of it like this: When the 3rd door is opened, then there is two doors left. And then the host asks you to decide. It is like starting all over again with only 2 doors. forget about the three doors.
Your chances are 1/2 on the second choice. I would your chances are pretty much equal. because your in fact making another choice. The same thing with the 100 doors thingy. At the end, your left with a decision to make between 2 choices.
Last edited by A3ntar on Mon Oct 24, 2005 12:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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- KVRAF
- 1817 posts since 1 Jun, 2003
sounds good. that would make more sense it term of doubling chances, in any case, which they claim...Bob Gravy wrote:Now I think about it, I think you have a 2/3 chance if you switch. Maybe. Still thinking.
if one door is known, that would make two doors safe, i.e. 2/3 - but i lost track of where the change of mind plays into this. hmm.
in the beginning the chances are 1 out of 3 - because two are goats, and one is car.
then chances could be 2 out of 3 - because one is car and one is deactivated (1+1=2) - i.e. 2 vs 1(goat) - 2/3....
if that was correct my initial idea might be dead wrong, how embarrassing.
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- KVRAF
- 1817 posts since 1 Jun, 2003
well, either that (which is exactly what i first proposed) or what i just said in the post above this one... or maybe a combination of both, since the 1/2 results from the 1/3 to 2/3. erm.A3ntar wrote:Did you guys think about that:
------------------------------
1) You first make a choice, and your chances were 1/3
2) The host open the door, we have two elements left
3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.
Think of it like this: When the 3rd door is opened, then there is two doors left. And then the host asks you to decide. It is like starting all over again with only 2 doors. forget about the three doors.
Your chances are 1/2 on the second choice. I would your chances are pretty much equal. because your in fact making another choice. The same thing with the 100 doors thingy. At the end, your left with a decision to make between 2 choices.
i guess i am just not sure whether the open door still counts into the equation or not. either way it should be 2/3 or 1/2, i suppose.
hm. this could get bad. maybe i'll sign up with a new user name tomorrow...
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- KVRAF
- 25049 posts since 12 Jul, 2003 from West Caprazumia
Bob, let me try to explain it another way:
(and please think about my argumentation instead referring to some other evidence)
I have mentioned throwing a dice. What you do if you throw a dice is to create a new reality. However the example with the three doors has one reality which doesn't change during the whole course. The car and the goats always stay at the same place. You just don't know where they are.
If you got three doors there is a 33% chance to guess where the car is and if you got twoo doors there's a 50% chance.
After the first door has been opened and there was a goat behind it this fact raised you chances by 16,6 percent because one of two goats is gone. that's a new reality and it also reaised the chance for the second goat to be behind the door you have chosen by 16,6 percent. This is a new situation but the same reality. The car has not moved, the second goat has not moved but one goat and one door have been gone. It's suddenly not one, two or three but it's just one or two. The goat behind the frist door had a 33 percent chance to be found and it was found. When it is gone these 33% are then shared between the car and the second goat.
Your chance can't be 33% percent after one of the three doors have been opened because that would then sum up to a total of 66percent - however the total amount of all probabilites is always 100%...
- actually it's quite simple...
(and please think about my argumentation instead referring to some other evidence)
I have mentioned throwing a dice. What you do if you throw a dice is to create a new reality. However the example with the three doors has one reality which doesn't change during the whole course. The car and the goats always stay at the same place. You just don't know where they are.
If you got three doors there is a 33% chance to guess where the car is and if you got twoo doors there's a 50% chance.
After the first door has been opened and there was a goat behind it this fact raised you chances by 16,6 percent because one of two goats is gone. that's a new reality and it also reaised the chance for the second goat to be behind the door you have chosen by 16,6 percent. This is a new situation but the same reality. The car has not moved, the second goat has not moved but one goat and one door have been gone. It's suddenly not one, two or three but it's just one or two. The goat behind the frist door had a 33 percent chance to be found and it was found. When it is gone these 33% are then shared between the car and the second goat.
Your chance can't be 33% percent after one of the three doors have been opened because that would then sum up to a total of 66percent - however the total amount of all probabilites is always 100%...
- actually it's quite simple...
Last edited by jens on Mon Oct 24, 2005 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- KVRer
- 28 posts since 21 Oct, 2005
For a drunk bloke your maths is pretty good...fabi the underachiever wrote:well, either that (which is exactly what i first proposed) or what i just said in the post above this one... or maybe a combination of both, since the 1/2 results from the 1/3 to 2/3. erm.A3ntar wrote:Did you guys think about that:
------------------------------
1) You first make a choice, and your chances were 1/3
2) The host open the door, we have two elements left
3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.
Think of it like this: When the 3rd door is opened, then there is two doors left. And then the host asks you to decide. It is like starting all over again with only 2 doors. forget about the three doors.
Your chances are 1/2 on the second choice. I would your chances are pretty much equal. because your in fact making another choice. The same thing with the 100 doors thingy. At the end, your left with a decision to make between 2 choices.
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- KVRAF
- 25049 posts since 12 Jul, 2003 from West Caprazumia
what's what I meant but...A3ntar wrote:Did you guys think about that:
------------------------------
1) You first make a choice, and your chances were 1/3
2) The host open the door, we have two elements left
3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.
Think of it like this: When the 3rd door is opened, then there is two doors left. And then the host asks you to decide. It is like starting all over again with only 2 doors. forget about the three doors.
Your chances are 1/2 on the second choice. I would your chances are pretty much equal. because your in fact making another choice. The same thing with the 100 doors thingy. At the end, your left with a decision to make between 2 choices.
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- KVRAF
- 1817 posts since 1 Jun, 2003
i propose we all meant that. anyone wanna bet?jens wrote:what's what I meant but...A3ntar wrote:Did you guys think about that:
------------------------------
1) You first make a choice, and your chances were 1/3
2) The host open the door, we have two elements left
3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.
Think of it like this: When the 3rd door is opened, then there is two doors left. And then the host asks you to decide. It is like starting all over again with only 2 doors. forget about the three doors.
Your chances are 1/2 on the second choice. I would your chances are pretty much equal. because your in fact making another choice. The same thing with the 100 doors thingy. At the end, your left with a decision to make between 2 choices.
