YOU WILL NOT BELEIVE THIS

[jens]

Yeah. Found this:
http://www.jimloy.com/puzz/monty.htm
Convinced yet?

it might be that not being a native english speaker is the culprit for me here...

my explanation is right if the first door is opened at random...


...hoever if the moderator opens purposely a door from which he knows there's a goat behind it then indeed you should readjust your choice...


...I think - well, I have to think again about this one...

[Jbravo]

3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.

no that's wrong, if you stick with the same door you intially chose the chances are still 1 in 3

if you change though, your chances become 1 in 2 so you're more likely to have guessed correctly

[jens]

3) Wether you choose to stick with your door or choose the other one, your chances are 1/2 now and your faced with a new decision.

no that's wrong, if you stick with the same door you intially chose the chances are still 1 in 3

if you change though, your chances become 1 in 2 so you're more likely to have guessed correctly

we like I already wrote:

even if you stay with your original choice you actively make a new choice

'wanna change?'

Yes' or 'no' - both are active choices...

[fabi]

if you change though, your chances become 1 in 2 so you're more likely to have guessed correctly

or 2 in 3 - if you look at it in terms of three doors that were there initially.

i suppose.

edit: not to hijack this incredible thread, but how come you are still awake, jens?

[A3ntar]

we like I already wrote:

even if you stay with your original choice you actively make a new choice

'wanna change?'

Yes' or 'no' - both are active choices...

This is exactly what I meant. Whether you choose yes or no your are picking one door out of two doors. even if you pick the one you already picked.

Now the other question is: If you choose a door the first time, knowing that you will be switching it the second time, will your chances decrease by 1/2?

[jens]

edit: not to hijack this incredible thread, but how come you are still awake, jens?

basically because I'm an insomniac at times (epecially when I'm alone )

oh, and the other reason is that I went to bed after nine this morning and then slept until four p.m. or so...

[A3ntar]

Your chance can't be 33% percent after one of the three doors have been opened because that would then sum up to a total of 66percent - however the total amount of all probabilites is always 100%...

Again, well said Jens. Exactly how I thought this through.

[jens]

Now the other question is: If you choose a door the first time, knowing that you will be switching it the second time, will your chances decrease by 1/2?

let's not go there o.k.

(*opens up another bottle of beer*)

[A3ntar]

LOL

[fabi]

Your chance can't be 33% percent after one of the three doors have been opened because that would then sum up to a total of 66percent - however the total amount of all probabilites is always 100%...

Again, well said Jens. Exactly how I thought this through.

i just don't remember anyone saying anything that would lead us to end up with only 66%... maybe i just didn't pay close enough attention.

[A3ntar]

You guys will love these:

[Colonel Flashback]

what if it's called the Monty Hall trap because there actually is no car behind any door?

[jens]

You guys will love these:

yeah that's great - I've got some powerpoint-document with even more of these... - it's pure genius!

[fabi]

those are cool picture a3ntar. they must look really distorted, when looking from any but the implied angle, though, or am i wrong?

[jens]

those are cool picture a3ntar. they must look really distorted, when looking from any but the implied angle, though, or am i wrong?

no, you are completely right - I'll post a pic of the lady at the pool from the other side in a few...