How Many Units Does A Hit Synth Sell?

[Angus_FX]

i dont think its because VST users are a "still a pretty small and exclusive group". according to some (unreliable) discussion, Behringer sold nearly 1 million midi controllers (foremost BCR/BCF) - at least 90% getting used for software control. and at least for sequencing EVERYBODY uses a computer nowadays (leaving aside MPC-community and exotic hw-seq geeks).

Probably largely to Reason users, they've sold more of that than every plugin put together I reckon - and I very, very much doubt they sold 1m BCR/BCF controllers anyhow.

NI homepage states 140 employees (in Berlin and LA). would be still ~25000 units/year.

Would be challenging to support 140 full time, skilled employees in Western countries on 25k units/year, assuming an average selling price in the $200-300 region.

Bear in mind anybody selling that many units is selling primarily retail, and retail/distribution takes a huge cut (30-40% for a company who owns its national distribution, 60% for one who does not, 75% for one using a worldwide distribution outfit). Retail is where the big numbers are, but it's expensive to be there, and getting there does not in any way guarantee a hit.

It's very very rare for an online-only or mainly-online plugin to get past 5,000 units. There are a few that have done it, but only through being on the market for many years.

You can buy a report called MI SalesTrak (not cheap, mind you) that reports on all the majors' sales figures at US retail. Typically (though there are exceptions), online and the rest of the world put together will be about 2-3x that number, depending on the product. There are only 3 plug-ins that did more than 2,000 units at US retail last year, and nope none of them were FXpansion ones - won't say what they are, buy the report or find someone that has it.

[sonkeysankey]

i believe 1000+ is too defensive.

Korg M1 (around 1990, 2000$), afaik the most well sold synth ever, made it to 250'000 units (wikipedia). according to my googling Roland D-50 and Yamaha DX7 both were sold more than 100'000 times (DX7 wiki: 160,000). regarding newer synths, Korg Microkorg made it to 100'000 units.

its hard to believe software has lower sales than hardware by a factor of 100?

I agree. The M1 cost £1600. The Korg Legacy Digital Collection costs £120.
Why would it sell WAY less than the hardware version (apart from warez).
How much does it cost to PRODUCE the VST, i.e. the disc and packaging, compared to producing a REAL M1?

If Korg are very happy for us to know that they sold 250,000 M1s, why are VST developers so shy about THEIR sales figures?

[Angus_FX]

By the way, I thought that the M1 sold 250,000 units? So isn't there an even bigger market for VSTs today?

No. Most people that bought M1s bought it because it had easy to use presets that sounded better than anything else at the time. It had something for everyone, for maybe 2 years it was basically the only game in town.

Some of the people that bought M1s then would still buy Motifs, Fantoms or arranger 'boards today. Some will buy individual sample libraries. Some will use freeware, or the (really quite capable, for most people) instruments that come bundled with their DAWs. Some will use Reason.

Are there 250,000 people out there using this stuff? Undoubtedly, yes. But, it's a diverse and crowded market, and in any case buying commercial plug-ins is FAR FROM the only option.. indeed, it's only an option you'll come to at all after trying the other approaches and being dissatisfied. For a non geek, it's by some distance the hardest of all options, and a damn sight more difficult than "buy M1, plug in M1, play".

I agree. The M1 cost £1600. The Korg Legacy Digital Collection costs £120.
Why would it sell WAY less than the hardware version (apart from warez).
How much does it cost to PRODUCE the VST, i.e. the disc and packaging, compared to producing a REAL M1?

Because way, way less people need what it brings to the table. Most of them just want "the best piano", "the best strings". And, by the best, they mean the best of 3 that are put in front of them by the Guitar Center sales guy.

[JediMind]

This is just...how? I don't get it.

Okay. The DX7 was around $2000 back in the 80s. Over 160,000 were made. I have no idea how many were sold.

Meanwhile, software synths came along. You can find very capable ones for under $200 or even $100. There are a lot more producers these days than there were in the 80s, right? So, if all the DX7s have been sold back in the 80s, that means at least, dunno, 20k sells for each great plugin (assuming that not everybody buys the same great plugin.) If there are 1000-2000 sells per plug, then this means either:

1. Piracy.
2. Tons of developers.
3. Artists/producers have around 100-200 aliases each for a better chance of success.
4. People are still using their good ol' DX7s cause nothing beats "analog"

[Urs]

Wow, some of the devs on here have proven me wrong, and have spoken out. Good on you guys!

I'd happily talk about sales figures, but I realize a tendency of people to confuse revenues with profits. Even family and friends start to come up with slogans ("If I had your kind of money..."), but they don't see that more than 50% are drained for external costs (adwords, trade shows, sound bank percentages, hardware, software, lawyers, lego) and the rest is taxed 40%

[koalaboy]

2. Tons of developers.
4. People are still using their good ol' DX7s cause nothing beats "analog"

For (4) there's still a lot of hardware, and most hosts come with a lot of in-built value these days.

(Whilst piracy is bad, I don't believe it accounts for a massive loss in sales - it just means a lot of people have access to tools they wouldn't normally)

[Angus_FX]

Price has almost nothing to do with it. /Most/ people that buy keyboards don't have like 10. $1000-2000 is pretty normal money for a properly made musical instrument intended for an employed adult who's serious about playing it.

You need to break out of the KvR bubble mindset. Talk to normal, averagely-educated people over age 35, realise how much computers still indimidate the f*** out of most of them.

Put it down to tons of developers, tons of freeware, tons of other options. Piracy maybe eats 50% of sales, you can count downloads but that means nothing really. It's nothing like bad enough to account for the observed gap.

[koalaboy]

lego

[kv331]

taxed 40%

Well, then I'd suggest you invest in Turkey and dont pay income tax for 5 years (For any further info check out http://www.metutech.metu.edu.tr/cms/ind ... =64&Bbid=3)

Just my 2 cents

[willit]

Wow, some of the devs on here have proven me wrong, and have spoken out. Good on you guys!

I'd happily talk about sales figures, but I realize a tendency of people to confuse revenues with profits. Even family and friends start to come up with slogans ("If I had your kind of money..."), but they don't see that more than 50% are drained for external costs (adwords, trade shows, sound bank percentages, hardware, software, lawyers, lego) and the rest is taxed 40%

WOW... not much profit at all... Still, I don't think you have any reason to justify it if you got to keep all that money... Your synth is outstanding not because of who you know or how many friends are on your myspace - it's because of the hard work that went in to R&D. Developers aren't like DJs - developers get recognised because of their amazing work.

[Cyforce]

taxed 40%

Oh yes, germany and his taxes...

that forgot many users from other countrys, that some countrys have really high taxes in comparision to some others.
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[Urs]

3,000 x $200 = $600,000

3.000 x $120 rather, as there are fees involved, and about 600 licenses were upgraded from Zebra 1.x while about 500 people took advantage of the dinosaur crossgrade.

And make no mistake, even a one man business has immense costs to keep things up and running.

As I said somewhere else, a Zebra alone doesn't feed its developer

[whyterabbyt]

3,000 x $200 = $600,000

Nothing to cry about, even it was released twenty years ago...

You'd seriously suggest that a western-european business making only $30,000 a year before costs is 'nothing to cry about'?
You'd have made more working in a shop. As a running business, that would be an abject failure.

For one person's wage over 7 years, it aint too bad. Not Porsche-owning good, though, unlike the picture of developers that people like yourself love to imply. Absolutely shite compared to some numpty driving spreadsheets for a bank, or even for someone who spent 7 years in a semi-successful games company, let alone places like GTA, where the couple of guys Ive known did get Porsches.
As a company's before-costs income, though? Still less than a decent pub turns over in a year.
And that's one of the major players.

edit : and now we have more accurate figures: 3000 copies at $120, with costs of 50% and tax of 40%. i bet you'd sodding cry if that was your sole wage from running your own company for most of a decade.

[Gamma-UT]

...not because of who you know or how many friends are on your myspace - it's because of the hard work that went in to R&D. Developers aren't like DJs - developers get recognised because of their amazing work.

And then they get castigated for not answering the odd email.

[robogone]

some numpty driving spreadsheets for a bank

Hey! I resemble that remark...