A possible future according to Gartner. As windows becomes niche and marginalized, will windows only DAWs like Sonar still only work on Windows? As desktop becomes relegated to specialty applications like graphics, etc will the cost of desktops increase? Which would in turn push home recordists like me towards tablets to make music? We are beyond an inflexion point. Micrsoft has already lost the war.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/20 ... es-tablets
Microsoft threatened as smartphones and tablets rise, Gartner warn
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- KVRAF
- 21348 posts since 26 Jul, 2005 from Gone
Well it doesn't look like there are any predictions of a reduction in the number of MS powered devices. Sure the balance of mobile to more conventional might change, but the majority of change seems to be the increase in tablets rather than that along with a corresponding drop in conventional PCs.
I don't see any immediate need to assume that PCs/Macs are going away any time soon based on these projections.
I don't see any immediate need to assume that PCs/Macs are going away any time soon based on these projections.
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- KVRAF
- 10175 posts since 16 Dec, 2002
No.
Think about the office environment for example.
Practically every business on the planet relies on PCs and MS Office products.
Think about the office environment for example.
Practically every business on the planet relies on PCs and MS Office products.
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- KVRAF
- 5576 posts since 30 May, 2006 from Hollow Earth
ABEFLGMOPPRRST 
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- KVRAF
- 2236 posts since 25 Dec, 2005
"threatened" "war" "lost" "niche" "marginalized"....
speechless.
speechless.
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- KVRAF
- 8238 posts since 22 Sep, 2008 from Windsor. UK
Who comes up with this crap?
People use tablets and phones as well as 'normal' computers.
People use tablets and phones as well as 'normal' computers.
Soundcloud | Facebook |
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- KVRAF
- 21348 posts since 26 Jul, 2005 from Gone
Exactly, and that's pretty obvious to see by the total number of units growing so much over time.tehlord wrote:Who comes up with this crap?
People use tablets and phones as well as 'normal' computers.
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- KVRAF
- 16977 posts since 23 Jun, 2010 from north of London ON
T'was ever thus. There was always someone predicting the 'end', or 'mrginalization', of somesuch item but it never happened. I'd expect the same to happen here as well.... 
Barry
If a billion people believe a stupid thing it is still a stupid thing
If a billion people believe a stupid thing it is still a stupid thing
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- Pick Me Pick me!
- 10264 posts since 12 Mar, 2002 from a state of confusion
Except when tablet and small form factor PCs end up using x86 style processors as they are ever shrinking to fit such a computing format.
Then we are back to Windows. If you think about it, every single piece of technology known to man, once developed, gets overused for sometime then slowly fits into it's place in society.
Tablets and SFF PCs are currently in the overused phase since they are new and 'exciting.' Once people get used to them in another 2 or 3 years, we'll see them used in more traditional ways I think. Actually, I suspect they will begin to become roku sized and eventually integrated into HDTVs for consumer PCs. I mean, why not? We have been and will always be niche and probably should be to some degree. The end consumer doesn't need what we need.
Actually, perhaps this is the call of Linux? If MS one day drops desktop style 'traditional' operating systems, perhaps Linux becomes more attractive? I mean wouldn't software developers simply move their products to where they can find users?
Then we are back to Windows. If you think about it, every single piece of technology known to man, once developed, gets overused for sometime then slowly fits into it's place in society.
Tablets and SFF PCs are currently in the overused phase since they are new and 'exciting.' Once people get used to them in another 2 or 3 years, we'll see them used in more traditional ways I think. Actually, I suspect they will begin to become roku sized and eventually integrated into HDTVs for consumer PCs. I mean, why not? We have been and will always be niche and probably should be to some degree. The end consumer doesn't need what we need.
Actually, perhaps this is the call of Linux? If MS one day drops desktop style 'traditional' operating systems, perhaps Linux becomes more attractive? I mean wouldn't software developers simply move their products to where they can find users?
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- KVRAF
- 3846 posts since 15 Mar, 2002 from Underworld
Not very successfully so, I might add.Kullervo wrote:but microsoft does smartphone & tablets too
That's one of the main reasons for these predictions. It's all about Android and iOS, Google and Apple. And in not so distant future, all you're going to need is your browser of choice and every app you need will be in it. I'm not very fond of the idea, though, due to privacy issues, and safety of your documents.I'd like to see Linux gain more momentum, as you can do so much with Linux, and normal users have everything they need in Linux, depending on the distribution. I've got a few friends who aren't musicians, and already running Linux for years. Once you install it, it just works. "It just works?" sounds familiar.
It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society. - Jiddu Krishnamurti
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- KVRAF
- 2448 posts since 12 Sep, 2004
Gartner, Forrester, et al. were going on about that very thing... back in 1998 when I was doing some product research into web-based document-/knowledge-sharing/groupware/yadayada... Their big vision of the "future" was web-centric, thin client, personalization, blah blah blah. That was 15+ freaking years ago, and in that time mobile is the new killer app. Java on the client is dead. .NET on the client is a non-factor, IMO. Whatever rehashed Flash/Flex/ActionScript thing Adobe has up its sleeves is DOA. You still have HTML5+Javascript+CSS (what us old timers still refer to as "DHTML")... but let's face it... it's HTML. Good for content, bad for large applications. You have not stood outside the Gates of Hell until you've worked on very large dynamic HTML systems with it's browser workarounds, hidden framesets hackery, Javascript jiggery pokery, and on and on.DuX wrote:And in not so distant future, all you're going to need is your browser of choice and every app you need will be in it. I'm not very fond of the idea, though, due to privacy issues, and safety of your documents.
Gartner and Forrester were right in one area, and that was the social media thing. In general, I'd say take the "informed scrawlings of very smart people" with a grain of salt...
You need to limit that rez, bro.
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- KVRer
- 6 posts since 12 Dec, 2013
No Microsoft is the whale of this industry. I don't think they would be threatened rather they they would come up with something new in future which will continue to attract its users attention.
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- KVRian
- 667 posts since 4 Jun, 2002
Kinda how PC's killed IBM right? Or at least that's what I remember everyone saying for about a decade.... Last year's revenue - $100 billion plus. Hope my company dies like that someday.
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- KVRAF
- 21348 posts since 26 Jul, 2005 from Gone
PC's didn't kill IBM, IBM's lack of vision allowed Microsoft to take a very profitable segment of the market that could have been theirs. Not PC's, but the operating systems that ran on them. IBM was never 'killed' or under threat of extinction.
The hardware was manufactured by a variety of companies of which IBM was only one - it's unlikely that they could have retained a monopoly on that, but they certainly didn't have the vision that MS had to take a bigger slice of the pie.
The hardware was manufactured by a variety of companies of which IBM was only one - it's unlikely that they could have retained a monopoly on that, but they certainly didn't have the vision that MS had to take a bigger slice of the pie.