OBSERVATIONS:
- Very few new synths are being regularly introduced (except for Cherry Audio)
- VST2 has been killed off and VST3 only adoption is glacial
- CLAP looks promising but universal support is up in the air
- Flagship synth major updates have slowed to a crawl
- There has been a huge resurgence in the sale of hardware synths
- DAW-less production has become a big trend
- Modular rack synths continue to be popular
- The VI market has reached saturation and is not growing
- Economic turmoil means less discretionary spending
- Interest rates are going to slow credit card purchases
Your thoughts?
Is the Virtual Instrument era over?
-
- Banned
- 1646 posts since 4 Aug, 2017
Last edited by tony10000 on Tue Oct 25, 2022 11:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
- KVRist
- 184 posts since 17 Dec, 2020
No expert (serial hobbyist) but I don’t think so. I reckon there will always be a market for both.
For a start, PC/Mac/tablet-based producing makes music much more accessible, both for cost & space-saving reasons. My daughter’s primary school has an electronic music department (with a “Head of Music Technology”!) based on Macs, Logic & various VSTs!
Likewise, many will still want the immediacy & user experience of hardware.
The cost-of living crisis will eventually pass but more & more people will discover music.
I think the key to a brand’s success will be innovation - developing products that people want to buy & making them stand out from the rest.
Best example I can think of is Arturia - they listen to customers (with probably the best support in the business) & have great quality products (both hardware & software) with an interesting crossover to bridge the gap, i.e. MIDI controllers that integrate with their software - importantly though their controllers are very good outside of the Arturia eco-system too. I’d also include Vengeance - people moan at the cost of the Avenger Expansions but they offer a lot more than extra presets & do significantly enhance Avenger. Ultimately people are buying them so the model works.
One company I wouldn’t include is Native Instruments who seem to trot out the same old stuff & their controllers are only really useful if you use their software too.
So as I’ve said, I think that if done well, VST developers will have a bright future…
For a start, PC/Mac/tablet-based producing makes music much more accessible, both for cost & space-saving reasons. My daughter’s primary school has an electronic music department (with a “Head of Music Technology”!) based on Macs, Logic & various VSTs!
Likewise, many will still want the immediacy & user experience of hardware.
The cost-of living crisis will eventually pass but more & more people will discover music.
I think the key to a brand’s success will be innovation - developing products that people want to buy & making them stand out from the rest.
Best example I can think of is Arturia - they listen to customers (with probably the best support in the business) & have great quality products (both hardware & software) with an interesting crossover to bridge the gap, i.e. MIDI controllers that integrate with their software - importantly though their controllers are very good outside of the Arturia eco-system too. I’d also include Vengeance - people moan at the cost of the Avenger Expansions but they offer a lot more than extra presets & do significantly enhance Avenger. Ultimately people are buying them so the model works.
One company I wouldn’t include is Native Instruments who seem to trot out the same old stuff & their controllers are only really useful if you use their software too.
So as I’ve said, I think that if done well, VST developers will have a bright future…
-
- Banned
- Topic Starter
- 1646 posts since 4 Aug, 2017
A lot of development is still going on for existing sample formats like Kontakt, SFZ, and Decent Sampler. They are much easier to develop for and there is a sizeable existing market.
However, developing a new synth right now is quite a crapshoot. As a result, some devs that are still making synths just port their iOS instruments to MacOS and Windows.
-
- Banned
- Topic Starter
- 1646 posts since 4 Aug, 2017
Most of the activity is for existing synths or pending updates that take forever time to arrive (ex: Zebra 3, Synthmaster 3, Avenger 3, etc.)
-
- KVRAF
- 1767 posts since 20 Feb, 2003
I'm not sure some of your points could be stated as "FACTS".
EG Arturia just released more new synths and I'd say they're at the top of their game right now. The level of quality required, in order for your product to be noticed (never mind purchased) is also high, so I think there's more products around than we're often aware of.
Which isn't to say the market hasn't changed - prices charged increasingly have to be seen as reasonable in the context of a more mature market. There's less of the "get rich quick" $1000 EQ's etc. You need a flagship synth update every year?! All that'd end up happening there is you'll be charged for small incremental updates or have features added few want or use (Microsoft bloat style). Not to mention updating for an updates sake is frequently a good way to trash reliability. There are actually some advantages to a more mature market
VST3 adoption has been glacial, and there's arguments to be made (CLAP taking it beyond just an argument) that this whole area has caused market damage. Pretty much everyone (still updating products) is now making the move though, so it's not actually glacial by this point. Unfortunately most are wrapping VST2 products or aren't implementing many of the supposed advantages of VST3. (I mostly just want them to switch CPU use off, when idle, reliably!!) So it's a very hollow victory for Steinberg, which required piggy-backing on Apple's transition to even get that. They'll have earned the CLAP slap if CLAP manages to succeed.
Probably the biggest issue is the technological changes though. The mobile phone has replaced the need for a computer for a lot of people, and it's expensive to create a gaming PC better than the latest console. That's definitely having an impact. There's a generation who don't interact with computers in the same way as the generation, who grew up with a C64 etc, might. It's seen more like an office tool again. IMO This is a part of what's driving the DAW-less trend, and hardware instrument sales. People still want to make music, they're just not necessarily keen or comfortable going the computer route to do it, and there's been a near total market failure in terms of the integration of software with tactile hardware control.
There's likely to be difficult times ahead regardless, and agendas which seek increased energy prices won't help the case for high powered PC's. But that's ok. Own nothing, be happy, and eat the bugs.. Chomp chomp. Mmmmm exoskeletons
EG Arturia just released more new synths and I'd say they're at the top of their game right now. The level of quality required, in order for your product to be noticed (never mind purchased) is also high, so I think there's more products around than we're often aware of.
Which isn't to say the market hasn't changed - prices charged increasingly have to be seen as reasonable in the context of a more mature market. There's less of the "get rich quick" $1000 EQ's etc. You need a flagship synth update every year?! All that'd end up happening there is you'll be charged for small incremental updates or have features added few want or use (Microsoft bloat style). Not to mention updating for an updates sake is frequently a good way to trash reliability. There are actually some advantages to a more mature market
VST3 adoption has been glacial, and there's arguments to be made (CLAP taking it beyond just an argument) that this whole area has caused market damage. Pretty much everyone (still updating products) is now making the move though, so it's not actually glacial by this point. Unfortunately most are wrapping VST2 products or aren't implementing many of the supposed advantages of VST3. (I mostly just want them to switch CPU use off, when idle, reliably!!) So it's a very hollow victory for Steinberg, which required piggy-backing on Apple's transition to even get that. They'll have earned the CLAP slap if CLAP manages to succeed.
Probably the biggest issue is the technological changes though. The mobile phone has replaced the need for a computer for a lot of people, and it's expensive to create a gaming PC better than the latest console. That's definitely having an impact. There's a generation who don't interact with computers in the same way as the generation, who grew up with a C64 etc, might. It's seen more like an office tool again. IMO This is a part of what's driving the DAW-less trend, and hardware instrument sales. People still want to make music, they're just not necessarily keen or comfortable going the computer route to do it, and there's been a near total market failure in terms of the integration of software with tactile hardware control.
There's likely to be difficult times ahead regardless, and agendas which seek increased energy prices won't help the case for high powered PC's. But that's ok. Own nothing, be happy, and eat the bugs.. Chomp chomp. Mmmmm exoskeletons
-
- KVRist
- 259 posts since 6 Jul, 2019
On a more serious note;
Korg made their new synths also available in software. So does Arturia with the minifreak.
Even Moog made some IOS stuff available for Mac. Eventide , Strymon etc. Then there is the chip and ship shortage and other economic reasons in favour of software. I think the non-DAWless people are the silent majority in this scene.
Last edited by FotoxBr on Sun Oct 23, 2022 10:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
- Banned
- Topic Starter
- 1646 posts since 4 Aug, 2017
Granted, Korg and Arturia are pretty active in VST/AU development. Note, that the MiniFreak V (plug in) is only available to MiniFreak purchasers at this time.FotoxBr wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 9:58 amOn a more serious note;
Korg made there new synths also available in software. So does Arturia with the minifreak.
Even Moog made some IOS stuff available for Mac. Then there is the chip and ship shortage and other economic reasons in favour of software. I think the non-DAWless people are the silent majority in this scene.
It is interesting to see that plugin versions are not available for many of the newer hardware synths that are primarily software driven. Examples, Waldorf, Modal, ASM, etc.
-
- KVRAF
- 1892 posts since 9 Jul, 2014 from UK
@theOP
Don’t be stupid
Don’t be stupid
I wonder what happens if I press this button...
-
- addled muppet weed
- 111238 posts since 26 Jan, 2003 from through the looking glass
yes, virtually.
-
- KVRian
- 849 posts since 11 Mar, 2010
I think you have a lot of valid points, yes.tony10000 wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:43 am FACTS:
- Very few new synths are being regularly introduced (except for Cherry Audio)
- VST2 has been killed off and VST3 only adoption is glacial
- CLAP looks promising but universal support is up in the air
- Flagship synth major updates have slowed to a crawl
- There has been a huge resurgence in the sale of hardware synths
- DAW-less production has become a big trend
- Modular rack synths continue to be popular
- The VI market has reached saturation and is not growing
- Economic turmoil means less discretionary spending
- Interest rates are going to slow credit card purchases
Your thoughts?
-
- KVRAF
- 3642 posts since 6 Aug, 2009
speculation, guesses, theory.
i mean "DAW-less production has become a big trend" doesn't mean it's even-slightly supplanted DAW production; not by a long shot.
there are far more macs & pc-users in the wild than hardware synth users, and there is no evidence that people are abandoning their DAWs or synth plugins.
anyway, it's not an uninteresting discussion, but i doubt hardware is going to replace software overall in music production (just as i'm sure no one will abandon final cut for physical film editing)
i mean "DAW-less production has become a big trend" doesn't mean it's even-slightly supplanted DAW production; not by a long shot.
there are far more macs & pc-users in the wild than hardware synth users, and there is no evidence that people are abandoning their DAWs or synth plugins.
anyway, it's not an uninteresting discussion, but i doubt hardware is going to replace software overall in music production (just as i'm sure no one will abandon final cut for physical film editing)
Last edited by fisherKing on Sun Oct 23, 2022 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
_______________________
https://upstatebrooklyn.com
https://upstatebrooklyn.com
-
- addled muppet weed
- 111238 posts since 26 Jan, 2003 from through the looking glass
the dawless trend...
as kvr loves a transport analogy...
some folk still ride horses too, i guess cars days are numbered?
as kvr loves a transport analogy...
some folk still ride horses too, i guess cars days are numbered?
-
- Banned
- Topic Starter
- 1646 posts since 4 Aug, 2017
Places like Sweetwater and Perfect Circuit are sure selling a lot of "horses", aren't they? LOL!vurt wrote: Sun Oct 23, 2022 1:30 pm the dawless trend...
as kvr loves a transport analogy...
some folk still ride horses too, i guess cars days are numbered?