Is the Virtual Instrument era over?

[kevvvvv]

Because we await the AI synth

[dellboy]

The 80s was the era of of digital synths (DX7, D50, M1, Jupiter 8, CZ101, ESQ1, etc.)

I know, that you know,but you accidently put the Roland Jupiter 8 as digital, when in fact its analogue

I would have to disagree with the 80s being digital. In the UK the 80s was mainly analogue synth pop driven. The DX7 did play a big part, but it was often in the mix along with analogue stuff. The M1 and D50 appeared right at the end of the eighties, around about 1987 -88 if I rememeber correctly.

[tony10000]

The 80s was the era of of digital synths (DX7, D50, M1, Jupiter 8, CZ101, ESQ1, etc.)

I know, that you know,but you accidently put the Roland Jupiter 8 as digital, when in fact its analogue

Corrected....I changed it to Alpha Juno. (Just woke up)

I would have to disagree with the 80s being digital. In the UK the 80s was mainly analogue synth pop driven. The DX7 did play a big part, but it was often in the mix along with analogue stuff. The M1 and D50 appeared right at the end of the eighties, around about 1987 -88 if I rememeber correctly.

There were certainly analog synths on records in the 80s--for example, people will still using classic Moogs, Sequentials, Oberheims, etc., especially in the early 80s. It was still the golden era for digital synths...everyone wanted a DX7 as I remember (and it sold for a hefty $2K) or a TX module. Most of the analog models released during the 80s were highly imitative and derivative of the classic models created in the 70s (the Matrix 6 and Poly 800 come to mind). Most jettisoned unstable VCOs for DCOs while retaining VCFs. An outlier las the Xpander/Matrix 12). I remember when a lot of analog synths were being sold for very low prices when MIDI came out in 1983. In my 80s studio in LA, the only completely analog synth I owned was a Moog Prodigy.

[Rastkovic]

The 80s was the era of of digital synths (DX7, D50, M1, Jupiter 8, CZ101, ESQ1, etc.)

I know, that you know,but you accidently put the Roland Jupiter 8 as digital, when in fact its analogue

Corrected....I changed it to Alpha Juno. (Just woke up)

The Alpha Juno is not digital. Yes I know he had DCO's....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digitally ... oscillator

[tony10000]

The 80s was the era of of digital synths (DX7, D50, M1, Jupiter 8, CZ101, ESQ1, etc.)

I know, that you know,but you accidently put the Roland Jupiter 8 as digital, when in fact its analogue

Corrected....I changed it to Alpha Juno. (Just woke up)

The Alpha Juno is not digital. Yes I know he had DCO's....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digitally ... oscillator

I would consider any synth with DCOs a digital hybrid synth. And the Alpha Juno was a derivative design.

[gExpectations]

imho there is a fallacy in the original argument: new plugins releasing is better than no new plugins releasing. i think its good that developers support their synths long time. id take an alg upgrade every 5 years of a plugin over buying a new plugin any day of the week or pay for some fake innovation once a year, like buying a razor with 17 blades. if we get less new 'big' synths that just means the industry is maturing no?

theres also alot of unfounded statements supporting that argument, like modular stuff being popular. just becuase modular stuff is visible on youtube doesn't mean its "popular" in relation to, e.g. the guitar. my personal guess would be, for every person that owns a modular rig theres at least 20 kids producing with FL on laptops. same goes for the hardware argument. "they sure sell alot of synths at sweetwater" means what exactly? alot in relation to what? how much did they sell 10 years ago? how much software was sold at that point? I would bet that theres still more software licenses sold today, in fact that theres at least 3-5-10 times as many sold as there were in 2010. bedroom production apparently has exploded, as we can see by the prices, amount of independant devs and amount of ancillary work being done, e.g. on youtube.

so my guess would be theres no downturn in the software instrument market.

[gExpectations]

tbh its like saying the area of the washing machine is over because no one comes out with a revolutionary washing machine

[tony10000]

imho there is a fallacy in the original argument: new plugins releasing is better than no new plugins releasing. i think its good that developers support their synths long time. id take an alg upgrade every 5 years of a plugin over buying a new plugin any day of the week or pay for some fake innovation once a year, like buying a razor with 17 blades. if we get less new 'big' synths that just means the industry is maturing no?

theres also alot of unfounded statements supporting that argument, like modular stuff being popular. just becuase modular stuff is visible on youtube doesn't mean its "popular" in relation to, e.g. the guitar. my personal guess would be, for every person that owns a modular rig theres at least 20 kids producing with FL on laptops. same goes for the hardware argument. "they sure sell alot of synths at sweetwater" means what exactly? alot in relation to what? how much did they sell 10 years ago? how much software was sold at that point? I would bet that theres still more software licenses sold today, in fact that theres at least 3-5-10 times as many sold as there were in 2010. bedroom production apparently has exploded, as we can see by the prices, amount of independant devs and amount of ancillary work being done, e.g. on youtube.

so my guess would be theres no downturn in the software instrument market.

Trend analysis is certainly subjective without hard data. Such data exists (NAMM, Music Trades, independent research firms, etc.), but I am not going to pay for it. I am stating my personal observations. Whether or not you consider them factually accurate is up to you. What is interesting, is a lot of people have challenged my list without actually making any valid arguments to the contrary. BTW, I have changed it to OBSERVATIONS to blunt the hissy fits.

[felis]

Is the Virtual Instrument era over?

In the overall scheme of things, it's still in its infancy.

[foosnark]

I think people kind of misunderstood my premise.

For example, I look at the 70s as the era of analog synths, as that is when most of the definitive models were designed and produced (MiniMoog, Prophet 5, Oberheim Poly, ARP, etc). The 80s was the era of of digital synths (DX7, D50, M1, Alpha Juno, CZ101, ESQ1, etc.) I think the 00-20s was the era of VSTis (with the last decade being the strongest): (Diva, Serum, Sylenth, Zebra, Predator, Rapid, Spire, Omnisphere, Falcon, Icarus, Massive, Hive, Electra, Synthmaster, Phase Plant, etc.)

Aside from some quibbling over dates and details, I think when you put it like that it does make some sense. Of course this sort of broad historical view is an oversimplification, and those "eras" really mark the beginning of popular trends rather than the ends of previous ones.

I would say very generally you could break synths into this sort of timeline. Of course, the various stages have more than a little overlap...

0: proto-synthesizers & electronic instruments (Telharmonium, Theremin, Ondes Martenot, Clavioline, Trautonium etc.)
1: the experimental/academic era (RCA Mark II, etc.)
2: modular voltage-controlled synths
3: self-contained, portable, analog synths, affordable to musicians.
4: MIDI, digital synths, samplers, drum machines, home computers with sound synthesis boards. Affordable to hobbyists.
5: early DAWs, MAX, virtual analog synths, grooveboxes. Retro fetishism gets its start (303s etc.)
6: virtual instruments, complete in-the-box production (the "VST era"). Affordable to almost everyone.
7: analog renaissance, Eurorack emerges from relative obscurity, mobile music production.

Saying "the virtual instrument era is over" seems like it's pronouncing doom and I think that's what people have objected to. I would say instead that virtual instruments are no longer the newest development/trend, but a well-established technology that's not going anywhere. It's not stagnant either -- CLAP didn't even exist a year ago.

[Introspective]

tbh its like saying the area of the washing machine is over because no one comes out with a revolutionary washing machine

All washing machines are revolutionary.

[tony10000]

Saying "the virtual instrument era is over" seems like it's pronouncing doom and I think that's what people have objected to. I would say instead that virtual instruments are no longer the newest development/trend, but a well-established technology that's not going anywhere. It's not stagnant either -- CLAP didn't even exist a year ago.

No, I am not pronouncing "doom and gloom". I just hope the trend continues as some of the developers that I have contact with seem to be more than a little discouraged.

It requires a massive investment of time and $$$ to become a VI designer these days and there is not much hope for ROI at this juncture (especially for $100+ VIs). CLAP certainly provides a glimmer of hope.

And there are more ways of working that don't involve computers, DAWs and plugins coming out all the time. For example, Akai has just released a MiniMoog plugin for the MPC One.

[gExpectations]

It requires a massive investment of time and $$$ to become a VI designer these days and there is not much hope for ROI at this juncture (especially for $100+ VIs). CLAP certainly provides a glimmer of hope.

isnt the opposite true? you seen nakst post their synths in the instruments forum? they asked about ui input on a music production discord im on, start from scratch, make their own synth and ui and people are using it/buying it. maybe if you want to be the next native instruments its extremely hard but just making a synth? probably alot easier than 10 years ago.

[Rastkovic]

The 80s was the era of of digital synths (DX7, D50, M1, Jupiter 8, CZ101, ESQ1, etc.)

I know, that you know,but you accidently put the Roland Jupiter 8 as digital, when in fact its analogue

Corrected....I changed it to Alpha Juno. (Just woke up)

The Alpha Juno is not digital. Yes I know he had DCO's....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digitally ... oscillator

I would consider any synth with DCOs a digital hybrid synth. And the Alpha Juno was a derivative design.

Why?? DCO doesn't mean digital oscillator.

[Double Tap]

OBSERVATIONS:
- Very few new synths are being regularly introduced (except for Cherry Audio)

Are they? Do you have any figures for the number of synths being released each year? Why do you think this is the case?

- VST2 has been killed off and VST3 only adoption is glacial

Is it? What's your basis for saying so? Slow compared to what? Has the adoption of Apple Silicon been faster or slower? Does this matter much?

- CLAP looks promising but universal support is up in the air

CLAP is clearly very new and it's too early to tell if it will be adopted more widely. We can gauge some of its appeal by the number of products supporting CLAP versions.

- Flagship synth major updates have slowed to a crawl

Have they? Do you have any figures for this? What counts as a major synth update? What counts as a flagship synth?

- There has been a huge resurgence in the sale of hardware synths

Are they? Do you have any figures for this? Is this in one particular part of the world or globally? I'd be surprised if there had been a substantial resurgence since we have just gone through a global chip shortage, but perhaps there has been.

- DAW-less production has become a big trend
- Modular rack synths continue to be popular

Virtual rack synths like the new VCV2 or hardware?

- The VI market has reached saturation and is not growing

Is it? Do you have any figures for this? Figures might be difficult to get, so are there any other indicators of the size of the VI market? I looked at Google search trends last year and it seemed that there had been a long term decline in interest in DAWs, except for an early pandemic boost. Has that apparent decline been noticeable in the music software market though?

- Economic turmoil means less discretionary spending
- Interest rates are going to slow credit card purchases

Your thoughts?

It seems intuitive that any industry that is not essential will see a contraction, although that's not always the case - consumers tend to reduce spending, but they may end up spending more on small luxuries to make up for things like the lack of holidays. Snack foods often do well during recessions because people still need treats. So the question is whether people who buy music software will seen it as a little treat or an unaffordable luxury. So who are the people who buy music software? Are they mostly professionals, or teenagers blowing their pocket money or 50+ hobbyists trying to recapture their lost youth?

I think your thread title is a QTWAIN - the VI era is a long way from being over, and the one thing that might hasten its demise is something you haven't asked about - artificial intelligence. And we still seem to be a long way from that having any serious impact on music software at the moment.

The other thing that makes me doubt that VI is over is the influx of venture capital and private equity into music software. Investors get lots of things wrong, but they tend to have access to good quality data about sales and market trends.

And lastly, replaced by what? Is this about fewer people making music or is this about people preferring hardware to VIs?