Is the plugin industry finally collapsing now?

[JustinJ]

I've never understood this complaint about 'crowded marketplace'.

In real life when you see a busy, bustling marketplace, you know there is a lot of trade happening and there are many customers willing to transact.

An empty marketplace is a marketplace where nobody is buying anything.

If it's a fear that your product won't get noticed because, well, it's unremarkable, OR you lack the ability to sufficiently set up stall and promote, then that's on you. Not the marketplace.

[Lind0n]

I've never understood this complaint about 'crowded marketplace'.

In real life when you see a busy, bustling marketplace, you know there is a lot of trade happening and there are many customers willing to transact.

An empty marketplace is a marketplace where nobody is buying anything.

If it's a fear that your product won't get noticed because, well, it's unremarkable, OR you lack the ability to sufficiently set up stall and promote, then that's on you. Not the marketplace.

I think you may be confusing customers with vendors in this "crowded marketplace"

[Zeisner]

If it's a fear that your product won't get noticed because, well, it's unremarkable, OR you lack the ability to sufficiently set up stall and promote, then that's on you. Not the marketplace.

Or potential customers suffer from decision fatigue. Too many options can be a problem.

[Richard_Synapse]

Or potential customers suffer from decision fatigue. Too many options can be a problem.

True, but I think KVR and other sites will ultimately start filtering out stuff. If plugin websites start to become autonomously created / operated and start selling random AI-made plugins for a low price, this is going to get uninteresting very quickly.

Richard

[quikquak]

I've never understood this complaint about 'crowded marketplace'.
In real life when you see a busy, bustling marketplace, you know there is a lot of trade happening and there are many customers willing to transact.

I remember computer games had the similar situation, with piles of cheap games stuffed near counters of shops, where parents would pick a crappy Mastertronic game for their kid. Mastertronic were committed to making the cheapest games.
Things all changed when certain Game companies, like Nintendo started making quality controls.
People voted with their wallets.

[audiojunkie]

Referring to the OP and all the comments that have come before, and not focusing on any particular person’s comment—

I think that it’s more complicated than everyone is making it. I truly believe that there is no “one thing” or even a group of things that can be blamed. The phrase “a product of our time” is possibly the best way to look at it. It is everything going on around us in the world today that makes a composite that is producing the effect we see today. Everything affects everything else. I could go on and on for pages providing evidence after evidence of things that have in one way or another affected the market, from world events, to government and political actions, to shifts in social attitudes, to the environment we live in to even our own attitudes, feelings and beliefs. Time changes everything, and none of us are the same people we were when we started. We are simply a composite product of our time.

The big question is, what are we going to do about it? The market is what it is. There is no one thing that has made it what it is. The real question becomes, and this is what everyone should be focusing on, how does one adapt successfully to the environment one lives in to stay successful. How does one evolve to continue and thrive, rather than becoming a casualty of extinction? There is no question that industry has been, is, and will continue to be littered with the bones of those who could not adapt. This is what companies will each need to carefully assess. What will allow a company to evolve to meet the needs of today in a sufficient enough way to continue to thrive.

That is the key. And I don’t have the answers.

[GaryG]

crappy Mastertronic game

I had a few of those for my Spectrum... some were little better than the things you'd type in from mags, could literally 'break' into them and see there were mostly Basic... But, OT, they made you appreciate the pricier games, taught a lesson about not being cheap if you can help it etc etc which is relevant to the audio plugin market imo...

[Zeisner]

True, but I think KVR and other sites will ultimately start filtering out stuff.

Only with AI, anything else would be too expensive. And that means very questionable results to say the least.

[Zeisner]

CPUs are also getting a lot more expensive in the next few months. Hard times for plugin developers if only few people remain who could even afford the hardware to run modern plugins...

[umd]

If people start to spend more money in the equivalent plugin emulation than in keeping a hardware unit running it will certainly collapse. Don't get me wrong, I love both worlds, but having to pay a fee to keep a piece of software running? No thanks, I'd rather get the real thing instead. If it is a plugin that does what I need and does not need any fancy stuff to keep it working, I will happily buy it.

[pekbro]

Developers can still get good prices, even as unknowns. You've got to have a good product and be open to things like flexible payment plans, RTO etc. IMO. I pretty much will not buy plugins costing over $100 without RTO. When it's available, I do it all the time.

*The latest one I am considering is a debut product for $200+, and I'm likely to go ahead with it.

[kernaudioio]

the industry isn't collapsing. what's happening is that the bottom fell out of the "buy 40 plugins a year on sale" pattern because most producers realized they don't use 40 plugins a year. the subscription bundles (slate, waves, plugin alliance, native instruments) absorb a lot of the casual demand that used to be single-license purchases.

the part that's actually under pressure is the middle: $149 single-purpose plugins competing with either $29 indies or $30/month subscription bundles that include 200 tools. if you make one thing and it costs $149 and it's not measurably better than a free or $30 alternative, yeah, that's a hard sell.

what i think is actually growing (or at least hope and bet on): small indies with strong opinions, developers who ship direct with no DRM, and tools that solve one problem really well. the "artisan plugin" space feels healthier than it did three years ago from where i'm standing, but that could be selection bias.