Storage prices got me down...

[TechHaus]

Just want to vent.

Back in September I almost pulled the trigger on a bunch of new nvme's...they were CHEAP! 2tb nvme's were like $120 and falling. But then convinced myself to wait until Black Friday. Surely the deals could get even better!

Then in October all of the data center deals started being announced, and by Black Friday the "deals" were worse...and you know how things went since then.

Anyway, I am determined to wait it out. I refuse to pay $300 (or more).

I already emptied out two of my drives and moved a bunch of stuff to cloud storage this weekend.

Next, I'm moving my sample drive to a smaller drive to free that one up.

My 16tb usb backup drive has a bunch of bad sectors, but even replacing that is like $100+ more than it should be.

Anyone else feeling the storage woes right now? Using what I've got...

[VitaminD]

Just want to vent.

Back in September I almost pulled the trigger on a bunch of new nvme's...they were CHEAP! 2tb nvme's were like $120 and falling. But then convinced myself to wait until Black Friday. Surely the deals could get even better!

I did the same thing in late 2019/early 2020 with housing. I was thinking prices were steep, a slow but steady trickle upward from 2008 subprime collapse pricing (unrealistic bargain basement pricing). Then the covid virus happened and I thought I'll wait a few months until this sorts out and buy. But people started moving from out of state, since they could remote work now, which surged demand and pricing.

I ended up paying significantly more for the same type of house, even being forced into a small bidding war. Since then prices have bubbled up even more...

Point being, we have no idea what pricing for anything will be like in a year or two from now. It may be down, it may be up. So I now buy when I am ready for it and don't try to time uncertain things.

That said, here in the US, I have been successful in area Walmarts for SSD shopping. I've picked up a couple WD Blue 1TB SSDs for 66 USD each and have seen the 2TB ones for around $124ish. I saw a couple on store shelves last week even.

Otherwise, yeah I'd be hurting. A lot of these AI deals are through 2027 so it might be awhile, even if there is a sudden bubble burst in the AI field. These ships don't turn quickly. Personal computers as a whole are rather pricey now. RAM, SSDs, GPUs.. I think CPUs will be next.

[TechHaus]

As far as CPU's go...I am on currently on a Ryzen 3600 on an X570 board. I know I have to pull the trigger on a 5900xt (16 core / 32 thread) before they are gone gone. (EDIT: omg amazon has it for $259 for the next 9 hours).

I read the Iran conflict is limiting helium which is used in chip manufacturing? I'm ignorant on the subject.

[VitaminD]

As far as CPU's go...I am on currently on a Ryzen 3600 on an X570 board. I know I have to pull the trigger on a 5900xt (16 core / 32 thread) before they are gone gone. (EDIT: omg amazon has it for $259 for the next 9 hours).

I read the Iran conflict is limiting helium which is used in chip manufacturing? I'm ignorant on the subject.

Yes Qatar exports liquid helium, used for wafer etching. RAM/DRAM manufacturers have enough supply at least through June, even with the Iranian Blockade. The bigger issue is AI companies bought up silicon wafer and DRAM chip supply and are hoarding them.

South Korean RAM/DRAM manufacturers (who were once sued and fined for price fixing years ago) are not increasing supply, claiming it will be a short lived cycle. But, for all we know, they're doing it purposely to price fix again but now have an excuse.

From one article "Demand for high-performance SSDs has grown significantly as generative AI enters a phase of large-scale adoption—with enterprise SSD orders showing no signs of slowing. A clear shortage is expected in 2026, with meaningful capacity expansion unlikely until late 2027 or 2028. CSPs are willing to accept higher prices and sign LTAs to secure a stable supply, further reinforcing suppliers’ pricing power." https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/ ... 12995.html

I think we're in for a long ride. We might see some easing in pricing in the near term. But if you're expecting it to drop to 2025 pricing, even by 2027, I'd think again.

[uOpt]

I have serious need for more spinning rust storage in a 8-disk raid (rather, ZFS). That is prohibitively expensive now.

Let me join in the rant.

[ksandvik]

It might also depend on when the AI bubble bursts with the 'me-too' players have been eliminated. The dot-com bubble, this took about four years, so we might look at a similar trajectory. But we might find some good deals on used SSD/hard drives later! But no Aeron chairs .

[VitaminD]

It might also depend on when the AI bubble bursts with the 'me-too' players have been eliminated. The dot-com bubble, this took about four years, so we might look at a similar trajectory. But we might find some good deals on used SSD/hard drives later! But no Aeron chairs .

Fair point. I've also read some companies want to take their AI datacenters into space and use sunlight to power them. If they can figure out systems cooling, I'd fear we'd actually have an ever increasing ramping up for longer. There would be no taxes on land use and virtually unlimited room for scaling.

I guess it just depends on how much profitable functionality these companies can illicit to whether we get affordable personal PCs or not.

[ksandvik]

Personally I think the 'datacenters in space' is a stock-holder teaser hype thing with no real reality, imagine the costs maintaining such systems in space compared with hiring a $12/hour person going around replacing broken drives -- I suspect they wish it will be robotic but then maintain robots in space is yet another pipe dream today.

[VitaminD]

Personally I think the 'datacenters in space' is a stock-holder teaser hype thing with no real reality, imagine the costs maintaining such systems in space compared with hiring a $12/hour person going around replacing broken drives -- I suspect they wish it will be robotic but then maintain robots in space is yet another pipe dream today.

Plus mass amounts of space junk, on top of all the satellite junk we already have up there. But at least 3 different companies are or are soon set to test the concept.

[Jim Roseberry]

Massive "Data Centers" are a gross eye-sore.
We have a Google Cloud facility going up about 10 minutes from our house.
It looks far more like a military compound than what you'd think of in a corporate server-room.
Cryogenic cooling towers (many of them)... connected to giant warehouse like buildings.
Spread out on over 500 acres of land.
Pollution out the yin/yang. They gobble both power/water... raising utilities for neighboring communities.
If you have a choice, say no.

[glokraw]

One of these places should surround itself with 9 or 18 holes of golf. Improving air quality, perhaps the health of the workforce, and maybe popular with the locals.

[ksandvik]

Small cities think they will make revenue by allowing these AI super centers, usually they hire a few to clean up the floors and also take up much of the ground water and pump up electrical prices.

[TechHaus]

Just saw that the power company that provides energy to 49,000 California residents at Lake Tahoe is switching to data centers in 2027, and telling them they have to find their power elsewhere.

https://www.the-independent.com/news/wo ... 75802.html



Not that I voted for him or that it would have mattered, but if Bernie did "the Green New Deal" in 2016 and we had a connected green energy grid instead of what we have now things would be looking up in this country in a lot of ways.

[Gamma-UT]

Memory prices have a habit of crashing once they've gone into an upward spiral. If that doesn't happen this time, it would be an historic first.