JonHodgson wrote:You're right about the spreading of the market, and to some degree the reduced product lifecycle, however the potential market size has grown exponentially (the democratizing you refer to), and it's not as though people aren't USING the plugins, or DESIRING them (crack downloads show this), it's that they're not PAYING for them.nuisance sonore wrote:This is a complex question, and I don't think pirating is the only answer, a big factor maybe but not the only one.JonHodgson wrote:
Why is it that when it was impossible to pirate musical gear and recording equipment (because it was all hardware) and it cost a significant fraction of the price of your house, people found the money to buy them in the hundreds of thousands, but now that they cost less than your TV, or in some cases less than a good meal or filling your car with petrol, they're suddenly too expensive for even a fraction of those people to afford?
There's been a steady decline in product lifesicle since the 70s, I don't have the data but I'm sure even hardware don't sell as many copies of a particualr model compared to 20 or 30 years ago.
There is a multiplication of choices now, so a dilution of a single product market is certainly to be expected.
The steady decline of the cost of equipement required to produce audio visual material as brought along a democratisation of the field, meaning there is more and more peoples who do this as a hobby while maintaining other hobbies and interest; those peoples then weight in the cost of this particular hobby against other interest they might have, not against what it used to cost 20 years ago. And while this opens up new market to developper of hardware and software alike, this market is not used to paying the big bucks for their hobbies, all the while a slew of new product and companies are battling it out for a piece of this expanding market.
I'm sure they are other factors as well.
Look at what hardware sold, look at how many demo downloads there are, how many PCs are sold to people who make music (Be estimated about 2 million a year were bought by "Prosumers" and that's not even counting those who just want to dabble a bit), 5 figure sales of a plugin should be commonplace, and some should be reaching 6 or even 7 figures (3 million people bough Roland GS units)... but instead we're looking at 3 to 4 figures.
Piracy is not the only factor, but I'd say it is by far the biggest.
Not being in that business myself, I take your word for it. But what would you propose as a solution?
We know copy protection schemes of all kind don't work, as do most represive measures (how effective is the web site where they supposedly prosecute distributor of pirated software? Just guessing here, but not at all). If anything, it look like it only excite rebelious kind to redouble their efforts.
Education as proven to be working, but contrary to what's been started in the film industry (and very locally, in my province, for music as well) and which I know first hand to be working, I see no movement whatsoever from any part of the software industry to try to regroup and put forward a concise plan. If the problem is so accute, why not?

