Who will and will not be around in 10 years?

[Numanoid]

Propellerheads (Shrinking market share, outdated product)

Problem with Reason is that it is too expensive.

If they cut the price of Reason to $200 or below, they would entice a lot of new customers.

The Rack Extension library is growing, and they should focus more on getting their revenue from that.

[Uncle E]

I can imagine Native Instruments developing a more standard DAW, something not connected to the Maschine hardware. Or maybe it would integrate Maschine and Traktor into a Live kind of environment.

In any case, 10 years is a long time and I'm sure we'll see another revolution in DAW's that's as big as Live and Reason were.

[UncleAge]

Will there be a big enough demand for desktop computers in 10 years is a more relevant question imo.

Well unless DAWs become less resource-hungry (yeah right) or the tablets can run 12 cores (yeah right again), I think there will still be desktops for a while.

Maybe. I doubt DAW sells drive desktop manufacturing though. I'm not saying they won't be made just saying the demand has been decreasing for some time. It would be my guess that casual users are spending more time on their cellphones than desktops.

[UncleAge]

Will there be a big enough demand for desktop computers in 10 years is a more relevant question imo.

The other day I saw a computer chronicle prog from the early 90's about the rise of the laptops, and the decline of the desktops

More than 20 years later the desktops are still here...

True, but laptops have a much larger share of the market now than they did 20 years ago.

Anyway, my intended point was that the platform(s) available will play a large roll as to whether any of them are around in 10 years and if so in what capacity.

[Numanoid]

True, but laptops have a much larger share of the market now than they did 20 years ago.

But then again desktop computers are dirt cheap now compared how they were priced 20 years ago, and even though laptops have a bigger share of the total market at this time, I believe more desktops are sold now than 20 years ago.

[AnX]

Apple is essentially a hardware company, with a tiny % of the music market. They no longer dominate the areas they used to (phones/tablets) but ppl will still buy macs, and devs will still make mac compatible plugins ( even tho apple break everything with every os update). Cant see apple gone in 10 years, i can see them changing a lot tho.

As for the others, who knows, its a fickle market.

[Uncle E]

Maybe. I doubt DAW sells drive desktop manufacturing though. I'm not saying they won't be made just saying the demand has been decreasing for some time. It would be my guess that casual users are spending more time on their cellphones than desktops.

Intel is about to release a 10 core/20 thread CPU. You're right that it's not driven by the DAW market, it's driven by the gaming and video markets.

[UncleAge]

I believe more desktops are sold now than 20 years ago.

You are probably correct. I do wonder where the trend lines are headed.

However, in the end I'm much more concerned with whether I will be here in 10-20 years to add to the discussion.

[Numanoid]

I am a consumer that do not own a pad yet, but would buy one if I could use it as a regular desktop also

By that I mean I want to be able to hook it up to a bigger screen, and attach a mouse and keyboard to it

[UncleAge]

Maybe. I doubt DAW sells drive desktop manufacturing though. I'm not saying they won't be made just saying the demand has been decreasing for some time. It would be my guess that casual users are spending more time on their cellphones than desktops.

Intel is about to release a 10 core/20 thread CPU. You're right that it's not driven by the DAW market, it's driven by the gaming and video markets.

I find that to be confusing as well. The fact that cloud computing is growing in acceptance by leaps and bounds while chip developers seek to add more cores to cpu's. Just for gamers? I mean I highly doubt the business community cares to have 10-core cpu's. Can the chip manufacturers make their money back just from the that crowd who must have the "state-of-the-art" rig?

[whyterabbyt]

Apple is essentially a hardware company, with a tiny % of the music market. They no longer dominate the areas they used to (phones/tablets) but ppl will still buy macs, and devs will still make mac compatible plugins ( even tho apple break everything with every os update). Cant see apple gone in 10 years, i can see them changing a lot tho.

As for the others, who knows, its a fickle market.

Personally, I actually think its conceivable they could move out of the 'computer' market entirely; no more laptops or desktops, just the 'appliance' stuff (TVs, tablets, phones, watches yada yada). I dont think they want to be a computer company.
And Im certainly not convinced they care that much about the 'creatives' market they used to target. I could see their 'serious' content creation software, like Logic, disappearing. Its already been dumbed down, and stripped for 'parts' for the mass-market version; its not impossible to imagine it being abandoned entirely.

[whyterabbyt]

I mean I highly doubt the business community cares to have 10-core cpu's.

Funny, I'd suggest that things like financial risk modelling, and demographic analysis are heavily processor dependent. Businesses have always been comp-ute-heavy. They were the original mainframe customers when there were no consumer computers at all, why would they suddenly not want more horsepower?

[Mushy Mushy]

I mean I highly doubt the business community cares to have 10-core cpu's.

Funny, I'd suggest that things like financial risk modelling, and demographic analysis are heavily processor dependent. Businesses have always been comp-ute-heavy. They were the original mainframe customers when there were no consumer computers at all, why would they suddenly not want more horsepower?

This.

Several hundred formulas in spreadsheets several hundred thousand rows long requires some grunt. Bane of my life.

[UncleAge]

I mean I highly doubt the business community cares to have 10-core cpu's.

Funny, I'd suggest that things like financial risk modelling, and demographic analysis are heavily processor dependent. Businesses have always been comp-ute-heavy. They were the original mainframe customers when there were no consumer computers at all, why would they suddenly not want more horsepower?

I worked in one of those environments where we had dumb terminals decades ago. I understand your point. But even as that business grew (logistics) and the users were creating content and managing desktop databases and doing some desktop publishing there was almost never a need at the user level for a 10 core cpu. Just sayin...

[JJ_Jettflow]

Maybe. I doubt DAW sells drive desktop manufacturing though. I'm not saying they won't be made just saying the demand has been decreasing for some time. It would be my guess that casual users are spending more time on their cellphones than desktops.

Intel is about to release a 10 core/20 thread CPU. You're right that it's not driven by the DAW market, it's driven by the gaming and video markets.

I find that to be confusing as well. The fact that cloud computing is growing in acceptance by leaps and bounds while chip developers seek to add more cores to cpu's. Just for gamers? I mean I highly doubt the business community cares to have 10-core cpu's. Can the chip manufacturers make their money back just from the that crowd who must have the "state-of-the-art" rig?

CAD/CAM and Graphics will still need the high power of desktops as well.