Is the Virtual Instrument era over?

[Tj Shredder]

The point is not about that every soft synth should be huge, wide or supermassive. Phase plant, for example, has that super crystal glassy sound that hardware Moog can’t produce. But, a lot of softsynths sounds very similar and lack of liveliness. Everyone can make layers, but you have 2-3 hours maximum to fix your ideas and if synth sounds wrong, you will spend half of that time making sound design, not music

If synth sounds wrong I don’t use it. This is independent of its incarnation and can happen with any synth as likely.
If your sound world is strictly limited to sounds an analog synth can make, you might prefer hardware.
In general you need to slow down. I have seen people to tweak a kick for hours (which didn’t help), but why the hell should you spend only 2-3 hours maximum to fix ideas? Great music sometimes needed years to finish. Granted, tweaking a sound on hardware controls is fast if you are willing to stick with its limitations… That is, why I prefer to stick to one architecture if I have a sonic idea. No hardware synth, not even the biggest modular can get me there usually… In the Grid or in Max/MSP I can do it… My huge collection of VSTs is often just a collection of tweak-able presets combined with nostalgic memories (Cherry, thank you to make it affordable…).
Even if the claim that development gets slower (I can’t see that at all…). There is more around already that nobody will be able to explore this in a life time…
Did you ever hear of tropical additive synthesis? I can do it, but its most likely not worth to turn it into a commercial product, though it sounds great…
Most people who claim development is slow are waiting for updates to version x of something already existing. Just recently we got really exciting new plugins from Dawesome for example. I would rather say we still getting more innovative stuff than years ago. CPU speeds are going into areas of supercomputing we had some years ago… This opens up for synthesis methods which where not possible before. Certainly an area which hardware synths can’t even touch…

[davidka]

Companies relied on cost cuts made possible by cheaper labor and more accessible resources in the asian region. This was also supported through a fragile, just-in-time logistics system.

Due to the recent changes (china-US relations, pandemic, european war situation) the manufacturing industry shifts in a way where these resources getting scarce in the music industry, and other sectors, and the logistics can't support the low costs anymore.

The current way hardware music equipments are made usually require asian chips, asian/eastern european labor, and a lot of fuel either way. Even for domestic transports, fuel is getting very expensive.

It will take years for europe and north america to build the wafer factory capacities and rearrange the supply chains which relied so much on chinese container ships and trucks.

So with all these in mind, I think the safe bet is now to focus on software, for which a product is copied and not transported.
And release tougher built, well designed hardware, instead of rebranded garbage which becomes obsolete year by year.

Now's the time when companies who thrived in analog gear should seek joint ventures with companies who are experienced with circuit modeling, before they run out of money and go bankrupt.

[Urs]

Urs and u-he have reportedly had to do sales with Native Instruments just to get needed working capital to keep going. They also just did one with Bitwig. Many people who are getting Zebra 3 have already paid for it (me included) by purchasing Dark Zebra. So, that means that there will be less money coming in the door.

That's not 100% accurate. Every now and then we had to release new products to keep going. But new products meant, we had to neglect a backlog of things we wanted to do, including the maintenance of older products and certain upgrades. So we did a few sales in order to break out of that cycle of "make a new product, postpone long overdue tasks".

As for the topic, I do not see a decline in sales of virtual instruments. Diva, Hive 2 and Repro in particular sell extremely well, and I think the upcoming Zebra Legacy will be a no brainer for many.

[_leras]

I'd say the era of virtual instruments is only just starting. Let alone it's overlap with hybrid hardware technologies e.g. udo super 6 and the Novation peak/summit.

There is a reason not many 'flag ships' come out - and that's because these things take a lot of both synth knowledge and theory and also a good level of programming skills. Not many people have both.

I while it's easier than ever for people to build a virtual synth these days - to make e.g. the oscillators and filters top drawer is something else - let alone the other parts that need modelling like envelopes, saturation, fx. Beyond that many of the top plug ins now also model the actual electronics involved in the circuits, this requires yet another level of knowledge and tooling.

It's possible for people to catch up, but established developers who already have this knowledge (and existing code frameworks) still have a great base to build on to make newer and better. I'd say it's like a knowledge based pyramid, where anyone can make something basic but only a few have all the knowledge and skills to make something really top tier.

Hats off to all those out there pushing the envelope further and making ever better instruments for the rest of us.

[BONES]

FACTS:

- Very few new synths are being regularly introduced (except for Cherry Audio)
- VST2 has been killed off and VST3 only adoption is glacial
- CLAP looks promising but universal support is up in the air
- Flagship synth major updates have slowed to a crawl
- There has been a huge resurgence in the sale of hardware synths
- DAW-less production has become a big trend
- Modular rack synths continue to be popular
- The VI market has reached saturation and is not growing
- Economic turmoil means less discretionary spending
- Interest rates are going to slow credit card purchases

Your thoughts?

My first thought is that you're getting as stupid as The Intrancer with your ridiculous threads. My second is that the era won't be over until something comes along to take its place.

Most of your points can be put down to it now being a mature, saturated market. You might have said the same thing about cars in the 1950s or '60s or '70s or '80s and you'd have been wrong, just as you are wrong now.

I'd also like to see your evidence that there is a hardware resurgence because I think, if anything, it peaked 5 or 6 years ago. I find it increasingly difficult to find anything like the range of hardware synths I could a few years ago, in physical stores where you'd think they'd be most prolific. Music shops that used to stock a decent range often have nothing but a CasioTone or two and some have ditched keyboards altogether.

As for DAWless production, it might have a profile but it's hardly a "big" trend. If anything, it simply shows how much bigger the overall market for synth-driven music has become that there are enough DAWless idiots to make it look like a thing at all.

[Markus Krause]

The market is saturated since many years now.
During the last two years our sales were really good. People stayed at home because of Corona. Musicians spent their time with producing new tracks.
I was able to see a significant sales drop since the war in Europe started in January 2022.
Another sales drop which i can observe since this Autumn is caused by the high inflation rates in Europe and the US. Many people seem to save up their money for bad times.
I don't know about the rest of the world, but here in Germany with those insane taxes many people can not longer afford Energy (oil/gas/electricity).
I do not think that 'the Virtual Instrument era' is over. But it will be tough times for many companies.

[BONES]

It is interesting to see that plugin versions are not available for many of the newer hardware synths that are primarily software driven. Examples, Waldorf, Modal, ASM, etc.

Modal have their app that can function as a VSTi. It's just an Editor/Librarian, though, which makes perfect sense to me.

CLAP is off to an impressive start!

In what way? It's not supported by most plugin hosts, which means it's off to almost no start at all in the wider world. I don't think there is a CLAP version of more than 2 or 3 of the 350 plugins I have installed, either.

Then why are we seeing all these wonderful new hardware synths and very few new software ones?

Like what? The new Arturia thing is about the only new hardware synth I've seen all year and it's just a revamp of an existing synth.

Do you think companies can keep afloat from virtual instruments that you bought several years ago? That is why many of them are attempting to switch to subscription models.

I spend more on VST plugins now than at any time in the last 20 years. There is new stuff coming out all the time and lots of old stuff I never knew about.

Elecktron, Akai, Polyend, and others seem to be successful by promoting that workflow.

Elektron are a good example, they have more obsolete products than current models and their new products are getting cheaper and cheaper, which tells me it is getting harder for them, not easier. Same with Arturia, building on their cheapest synth to make another cheap synth, not a new flagship. Ditto for Korg - WaveState, OpSix and Minilogue XD are all lower-end products. In the Halcyon Days of hardware, it was all about the big flagship synths, not niche products.

Some people are getting into DAW-less production but that's really a minority. Honestly, I'd be surprised if these users comprised more than 1% of the whole music production ecosystem. Youtube is not a good representation of the real world.

I don't think it is even 0.1%. In fact, I'd put money on it being more like 0.01%.

I think that Markus of Tone 2 said that Icarus would be his last (although he did create Warlock from Firebird code). Nothing new from Rob Papen in quite a while.

That's because those two guys have made all the synths they want to and now there is far more competition than there was when they started, it's not as easy to get people to spend money with you. That doesn't mean they aren't spending money, though, they just have a lot more options than they did 10 years ago. As I said, it's a sign of an over-saturated, mature market.

The biggest problems with softsynths is the interface and thin, unimpressive sound.

Absolute, complete and utter BULLSHIT!!!! I can make sounds with a $15 VSTI (Union), that no hardware synth ever made could possibly come close to. And it works for one very simple reason - 32 voice Unison per oscillator, for a total of 96 oscillators in unison. And the unison itself is sublime. There is simply no bigger, phatter, badder muthafucker than Union and I am happy to put it up against the best you can manage.

Even with a lot of processing. A lot of possibilities can’t give you that “oh my god that’s huge” feeling, it can do only sound itself.

Of course they f**king can (see above). It's hardware that can't compete, which is why I've got rid of most of mine and the rest is moldering away in storage.

none of these can’t compete with plain intuitive exploration feeling that can provide physical knobs.

So buy a f**king MIDI controller and stop whining. To me, the inability to make the connection between your mouse and a synth shows limited intellect.

[tony10000]

That's not 100% accurate. Every now and then we had to release new products to keep going. But new products meant, we had to neglect a backlog of things we wanted to do, including the maintenance of older products and certain upgrades. So we did a few sales in order to break out of that cycle of "make a new product, postpone long overdue tasks".

OK...appreciate the clarification, Urs.

As for the topic, I do not see a decline in sales of virtual instruments. Diva, Hive 2 and Repro in particular sell extremely well, and I think the upcoming Zebra Legacy will be a no brainer for many.

Well, that is good news! However, I think it is interesting to note that Markus' comment below does not paint as rosy a picture of the market. It would be interesting to hear from more devs.

[Urs]

Well, that is good news! However, I think it is interesting to note that Markus' comment below does not paint as rosy a picture of the market. It would be interesting to hear from more devs.

My opinion is that currently we see a backslap from the previous "gold rush". Even before the pandemic, some companies got boosted with stupid amounts of venture capital, often for something that's IMHO not viable (like, the subscription fad). So now these companies shrink back or consolidate in other forms. So yeah, there's vacuum as result of greed and fast money, reflected by fewer releases and stagnation of very visible brands.

However, the way I see it, companies like Tone2 or us who refused to play those silly games will simply continue, and if the market declines, we have that vacuum to fill as a buffer. If I wasn't under NDA I could give an astonishing example of how those imploding companies gasp for air and literally offer us to fill the void they left.

[tony10000]

My first thought is that you're getting as stupid as The Intrancer with your ridiculous threads. My second is that the era won't be over until something comes along to take its place.

Ad hominems are not useful in civil discourse. I would prefer you bring illumination, and not heat, to this discussion.

Most of your points can be put down to it now being a mature, saturated market. You might have said the same thing about cars in the 1950s or '60s or '70s or '80s and you'd have been wrong, just as you are wrong now.

Poor analogy. Cars have a constant demand cycle, are pretty much required in most places, and new models are released every year and people buy them. Try again!

I'd also like to see your evidence that there is a hardware resurgence because I think, if anything, it peaked 5 or 6 years ago. I find it increasingly difficult to find anything like the range of hardware synths I could a few years ago, in physical stores where you'd think they'd be most prolific. Music shops that used to stock a decent range often have nothing but a CasioTone or two and some have ditched keyboards altogether.

I'm not sure about what it is like in the "land down under", but in the US, people don't even buy from brick and mortar stores anymore for the most part. Guitar Center is the same way here. A ghost town.

Sweetwater is the current market leader and they have quite an array of VI hardware:

https://www.sweetwater.com/c510--Synthesizers
https://www.sweetwater.com/c512--Keyboard_Workstations
https://www.sweetwater.com/c1203--Modular_Synthesizers
https://www.sweetwater.com/c1160--Sequencers

As for DAWless production, it might have a profile but it's hardly a "big" trend. If anything, it simply shows how much bigger the overall market for synth-driven music has become that there are enough DAWless idiots to make it look like a thing at all.

It is a trend...and there are a lot of people doing it. Catch up!

[tony10000]

The market is saturated since many years now.
During the last two years our sales were really good. People stayed at home because of Corona. Musicians spent their time with producing new tracks.
I was able to see a significant sales drop since the war in Europe started in January 2022.
Another sales drop which i can observe since this Autumn is caused by the high inflation rates in Europe and the US. Many people seem to save up their money for bad times.
I don't know about the rest of the world, but here in Germany with those insane taxes many people can not longer afford Energy (oil/gas/electricity).
I do not think that 'the Virtual Instrument era' is over. But it will be tough times for many companies.

Well as someone who has bought practically all of your instruments, I hope that you not only survive but thrive!

[kevvvvv]

Sorry to break in on Urs' fascinating insights, but the whole concept of this thread baffles me.

Can we step back a bit ....

Back in the pre-vst days, I was permanently in a state of saving up £500-£1,000+ to buy a new hardware synth, the latest must-have.

I was permanently skint from trying to buy new hardware.

Then VSTs came along and made brilliant sounds for peanuts.

And brilliant sequencers to drive them, replacing expensive tape machines.

And this thread is talking about a return to hardware?!

Laughable

Hardware synth worship is the False God of the Middle Class Poser Muso who can afford to spend £1,000s on machines that are no longer necessary.

Bit like a vintage car rally. Fun for collectors & posers, but underneath it all, quite dumb and ditsy.

If I've missed the point somewhere, then please tell me why a £2,000 synth is better than a vst?

Or why I should even consider wanting any sort of hardware unit?

[tony10000]

My opinion is that currently we see a backslap from the previous "gold rush". Even before the pandemic, some companies got boosted with stupid amounts of venture capital, often for something that's IMHO not viable (like, the subscription fad). So now these companies shrink back or consolidate in other forms. So yeah, there's vacuum as result of greed and fast money, reflected by fewer releases and stagnation of very visible brands.

Yeah, I start to worry when I see guys in suits coming in with sacks of cash. There is a lot of that going on and it is not a good sign. They usually try to buy quick market share and enhance profitability at the expense of the brand and products. They pump and dump the companies and leave them as a shell with tons of debt. Guitar Center is a great example in the US (though the COVID lockdown gave them a shot in the arm).

However, the way I see it, companies like Tone2 or us who refused to play those silly games will simply continue, and if the market declines, we have that vacuum to fill as a buffer. If I wasn't under NDA I could give an astonishing example of how those imploding companies gasp for air and literally offer us to fill the void they left.

I am watching plenty of companies playing that game right now, and some of them have lost my business. I hope that small companies with great products can be there for us when everything else is burnt down as Phoenixs arising from the ashes!

[SamDi]

It is interesting to see that plugin versions are not available for many of the newer hardware synths that are primarily software driven. Examples, Waldorf, Modal, ASM, etc.

Why should that be the case? What is regarded feature-rich on HW would be regarded feature-poor in SW. Take ASM for example. One of the deepest HW-synths available is easily exceeded by Serum, MassiveX, Ana2 and supersynths like Zebra, MSF, Pigments, Phase Plant, Falcon mop the floor with all of the HW pendants.

[tony10000]

And this thread is talking about a return to hardware?!

Laughable

Hardware synth worship is the False God of the Middle Class Poser Muso who can afford to spend £1,000s on machines that are no longer necessary.

Bit like a vintage car rally. Fun for collectors & posers, but underneath it all, quite dumb and ditsy.

If I've missed the point somewhere, then please tell me why a £2,000 synth is better than a vst?

Or why I should even consider wanting any sort of hardware unit?

I am completely "in the box", but a lot of people are buying hardware instruments from companies like Korg, Roland, Yamaha, Akai, Waldorf, Modal, Oberheim, Arturia, Sequential, Behringer, Moog, ASM, Electron, Novation, etc.

And then there is the Eurorack/modular market that is another market that is a black hole for $100 bills!