Opinions on Live 10 release date & next Ableton sale?

[GabryRox]

Hello everyone... I am still very new to this scene... been playing around with Live Lite 9 off and on since about July'15. I recently decided that I wanted to upgrade to Suite, but unfortunately missed Ableton's 25% sale back in late November. Since I can't bear (or afford) to pay the full $649 upgrade price, I've been looking in the Marketplace thread here but haven't had any luck yet. Sadly, I just missed a great offer from reputable KVR member last week by a couple hours, so now I wanted to get some feedback from those who have been around for longer, especially in regard to Ableton's version upgrade and sale cycle.

My first question is, I believe that Ableton usually has at least 2 sales per year. I obviously just missed the one 3 months ago, but does anyone know when they usually have their next one? I was hoping for President's day since Guitar Center & a lot of other music vendors have big sales, but nothing was offered from Ableton. Is the next one likely not coming till mid-year? Like around July 4th? Or, are they at all predictable? Also, are their offers outside of the Black Friday one usually 25% off as well? Or is this also an unpredictable factor?

Finally, does anyone have any kind of inclination as to when Live 10 might be released? I realize that this is likely very hard to predict, especially given the fact that the time between v8 & v9 seemed ridiculously long. Also, since they just released 9.5 & 9.6 within the last ~2 months, and there was no mention on Live 10 at NAMM, is it relatively unlikely that we will see v10 at all in 2016?

I know these are very hard things to predict, but I'm just trying to make the best decision possible since this is a major purchase for me. If I could find a license transfer for under $400 from a reputable seller, I would feel much more comfortable just pulling the trigger now, but of course there is know way of knowing when or if that will happen. I do have a 15% off upgrade coupon that was kindly offered to me by Ableton last week, but even with that it's around $550... and then if Live 10 isn't released in the next 5-6 months (which doesn't seem likely), I'm faced with yet another upgrade fee in possibly less than a year.

Thank you in advance for your opinions and advice!

[skyliner.dnb]

I don't think that Live 10 is gonna be released in a next 2 years, they've just got released push 2, which made them good money and now they could concentrate on updating Live 9 and developing good Live 10. They already made a mistake of releasing an underdeveloped Live 8, which later cost them a lot of time/money, I don't think that they are gonna make the same mistake again. My prediction is that it's going to be released in 2018-2019.

Btw I can sell you my Live 8 Suite license for $200, upgrade is gonna cost $299 (if you use your coupon it's gonna be $254). As the result it's gonna cost you just $455, which is much lower than buying a new one or upgrading from Live Lite. Pm me if you're interested.

[DrGonzo]

I don't think that Live 10 is gonna be released in a next 2 years, they've just got released push 2, which made them good money and now they could concentrate on updating Live 9 and developing good Live 10. They already made a mistake of releasing an underdeveloped Live 8, which later cost them a lot of time/money, I don't think that they are gonna make the same mistake again. My prediction is that it's going to be released in 2018-2019.

Spot on - I agree with everything here. Ableton is taking their time with Live 10. But I think we will see it sooner than 2018. No secret information - just a hunch.

/C

[mcnelson]

Live 9 was released in 2013; my money is on 2017 for Live 10 (4 years between versions, as with 8-9).

Could expect a surprise reveal at an event in October 2016, just as they did with Push 2.

Not insider knowledge here either.

[BDeep]

Live 9 was released in 2013; my money is on 2017 for Live 10 (4 years between versions, as with 8-9).

Could expect a surprise reveal at an event in October 2016, just as they did with Push 2.

Not insider knowledge here either.

That's my hunch too.

If I were in the same situation, I'd keep on the lookout for a second hand license. Especially since you buy now, there's a fair chance you'll have to pony up for the upgrade in 1-2 years.

[dsan@mail.com]

In the meantime, if I may suggest, take a look at Bitwig Studio.

It's very similar to Live; some things better than, other things not as good as, but this is the land of DAW's.

It's much more affordable and often in the Market Place here.

Just a suggestion is all, no affiliation, in case, being new to the scene, you are not aware of it.

[Mushy Mushy]

L9 was released in 2013?!

No way, where's my life going

[memyselfandus]

L9 was released in 2013?!

No way, where's my life going

I know! Crazy..

[Mushy Mushy]

L9 was released in 2013?!

No way, where's my life going

I know! Crazy..

I genuinely would have said 12-18 months.

[memyselfandus]

me too

[rod_zero]

If a Live license doesn't come up in the market place then ask for it.

I would say Live 10 is at minimum 18 months away, probably more. But this is just a guess.

[kmonkey]

hmm...there was a video few month ago. I don't know name for it anymore. But it wasn't about Push. And there where Ableton people in video and Monolake and so on. At some point someone spotted some kind of not seen version of live in that video. It was not Live 9 with different skin it was something not seen before and people where guessing that it's live 10. Much darker GUI and different mixer etc.

It does not mean anything but the fact is is that they have it working.


I'll try to recall video..

edit: it's here



Very cool video btw. But people where talk about just a short glimpse of VERY blury something-something which could be next version of Ableton Live.

Watch in HD and try to pause around 05:07

I can't see anything from it but it is clear that this is Ableton mixer (judging by mixer layout). Colors are indeed different and people apparently spotted new option in mixer which should be some kind of direct X-Y controller right there in mixer - well it kinda looks like this if you have enough of imagination.

[mcnelson]

It's a lot to infer from a blurry screenshot.

[Numanoid]

Release dates of Live based on KVR news ticker

From Live 4 to Live 8 it usually not took more than a year/year and a half between versions, but from Live 8 to Live 9 it took four years, so based on that Live 10 could not be released before 2017

9: March'13
8: April'09
7: Nov'07
6: 0ct'06
5: Jul'05
4: Jul'04

[Ogopogo]

Release dates of Live based on KVR news ticker

From Live 4 to Live 8 it usually not took more than a year/year and a half between versions, but from Live 8 to Live 9 it took four years, so based on that Live 10 could not be released before 2017

9: March'13
8: April'09
7: Nov'07
6: 0ct'06
5: Jul'05
4: Jul'04

I dunno, those dates show that there isn't a consistent pattern so it seems it could be out at any time. Then you also have to factor that they've made big changes to how they work, so they could be working faster or slower. I'm guessing that they will want to go big to answer Bitwig, so it probably wont be super quick, but they probably don't want to wait too long and give Bitwig too much time to shine either.